2014 Vol. 28 No. 6
Cover Note
2014, 28(6): 1003-1028.
DOI:
10.1007/s13351-014-4045-z
Abstract：Atmospheric aerosols influence the earth's radiative balance directly through scattering and absorbing solar radiation, and indirectly through affecting cloud properties. An understanding of aerosol optical properties is fundamental to studies of aerosol effects on climate. Although many such studies have been undertaken, large uncertainties in describing aerosol optical characteristics remain, especially regarding the absorption properties of different aerosols. Aerosol radiative effects are considered as either positive or negative perturbations to the radiation balance, and they include direct, indirect (albedo effect and cloud lifetime effect), and semi-direct effects. The total direct effect of anthropogenic aerosols is negative (cooling), although some components may contribute a positive effect (warming). Both the albedo effect and cloud lifetime effect cool the atmosphere by increasing cloud optical depth and cloud cover, respectively. Absorbing aerosols, such as carbonaceous aerosols and dust, exert a positive forcing at the top of atmosphere and a negative forcing at the surface, and they can directly warm the atmosphere. Internally mixed black carbon aerosols produce a stronger warming effect than externally mixed black carbon particles do. The semi-direct effect of absorbing aerosols could amplify this warming effect. Based on observational (ground-and satellite-based) and simulation studies, this paper reviews current progress in research regarding the optical properties and radiative effects of aerosols and also discusses several important issues to be addressed in future studies.More+
Abstract：In this paper, the methods to detect dust based on passive and active measurements from satellites have been summarized. These include the visible and infrared (VIR) method, thermal infrared (TIR) method, microwave polarized index (MPI) method, active lidar-based method, and combined lidar and infrared measurement (CLIM) method. The VIR method can identify dust during daytime. Using measurements at wavelengths of 8.5, 11.0, and 12.0 m, the TIR method can distinguish dust from other types of aerosols and cloud, and identify the occurrence of dust over bright surfaces and during night. Since neither the VIR nor the TIR method can penetrate ice clouds, they cannot detect dust beneath ice clouds. The MPI method, however, can identify about 85% of the dust beneath ice clouds. Meanwhile, the active lidar-based method, which uses the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) data and five-dimensional probability distribution functions, can provide very high-resolution vertical profiles of dust aerosols. Nonetheless, as the signals from dense dust and thin clouds are similar in the CALIOP measurements, the lidar-based method may fail to distinguish between them, especially over dust source regions. To address this issue, the CLIM method was developed, which takes the advantages of both TIR measurements (to discriminate between ice cloud and dense dust layers) and lidar measurements (to detect thin dust and water cloud layers). The results obtained by using the new CLIM method show that the ratio of dust misclassification has been significantly reduced. Finally, a concept module for an integrated multi-satellites dust detection system was proposed to overcome some of the weaknesses inherent in the single-sensor dust detection.More+
Abstract：The abilities of 12 earth system models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase5 (CMIP5) to reproduce satellite-derived vegetation biological variables over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) were examined. The results show that most of the models tend to overestimate the observed leaf area index (LAI) and vegetation carbon above the ground, with the possible reasons being overestimation of photosynthesis and precipitation. The model simulations show a consistent increasing trend with observed LAI over most of the TP during the reference period of 1986-2005, while they fail to reproduce the downward trend around the headstream of the Yellow River shown in the observation due to their coarse resolutions. Three of the models: CCSM4, CESM1-BGC, and NorESM1-ME, which share the same vegetation model, show some common strengths and weaknesses in their simulations according to our analysis. The model ensemble indicates a reasonable spatial distribution but overestimated land coverage, with a significant decreasing trend (-1.48% per decade) for tree coverage and a slight increasing trend (0.58% per decade) for bare ground during the period 1950-2005. No significant sign of variation is found for grass. To quantify the relative performance of the models in representing the observed mean state, seasonal cycle, and interannual variability, a model ranking method was performed with respect to simulated LAI. INMCM4, bcc-csm-1.1m, MPI-ESM-LR, IPSL CM5A-LR, HadGEM2-ES, and CCSM4 were ranked as the best six models in reproducing vegetation dynamics among the 12 models.More+
Abstract：This paper presents the design of an observation operator for assimilation of global navigation satellite system (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) refractivity and the related operational implementation strategy in the global GRAPES variational data assimilation system. A preliminary assessment of the RO data assimilation effect is performed. The results show that the RO data are one of the most important observation types in GRAPES, as they have a significant positive impact on the analysis and forecast at all ranges, especially in the Southern Hemisphere and the global stratosphere where in-situ measurements are lacking. The GRAPES model error cannot be controlled in the Southern Hemisphere without RO data being assimilated. In addition, it is found that the RO data play a key role in the stable running of the GRAPES global assimilation and forecast system. Even in a relatively simple global data assimilation experiment, in which only the conventional and RO data are assimilated, the system is able to run for more than nine months without drift compared with NCEP analyses. The analysis skills in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres are still relatively comparable even after nine-month integration, especially in the stratosphere where the number of conventional observations decreases and RO observations with a uniform global coverage dominate gradually.More+
Abstract：In previous statistical forecast models, prediction of summer precipitation along the Yangtze River valley and in North China relies heavily on its close relationships with the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), the blocking high in higher latitudes, and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). These relationships were stable before the 1990s but have changed remarkably in the recent two decades. Before the 1990s, precipitation along the Yangtze River had a significant positive correlation with the intensity of the WPSH, but the correlation weakened rapidly after 1990, and the correlation between summer rainfall in North China and the WPSH also changed from weak negative to significantly positive. The changed relationships present a big challenge to the application of traditional statistical seasonal prediction models. Our study indicates that the change could be attributed to expansion of the WPSH after around 1990. Owing to global warming, increased sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific rendered the WPSH stronger and further westward. Under this condition, more moisture was transported from southern to northern China, leading to divergence and reduced (increased) rainfall over the Yangtze River (North China). On the other hand, when the WPSH was weaker, it stayed close to its climatological position (rather than more eastward), and the circulations showed an asymmetrical feature between the stronger and weaker WPSH cases owing to the decadal enhancement of the WPSH. Composite analysis reveals that the maximum difference in the moisture transport before and after 1990 appeared over the western Pacific. This asymmetric influence is possibly the reason why the previous relationships between monsoon circulations and summer rainfall have now changed.More+
Abstract：The spectral characteristics of precipitation intensity during warm and cold years are compared in six regions of China based on precipitation data at 404 meteorological stations during 1961-2006. In all of the studied regions except North China, with the increasing temperature, a decreasing trend is observed in light precipitation and the number of light precipitation days, while an increasing trend appears in heavy precipitation and the heavy precipitation days. Although changes in precipitation days in North China are similar to the changes in the other five regions, heavy precipitation decreases with the increasing temperature in this region. These results indicate that in most parts of China, the amount of precipitation and number of precipitation days have shifted towards heavy precipitation under the background of a warming climate; however, the responses of precipitation distributions to global warming differ from place to place. The number of light precipitation days decreases in the warm and humid regions of China (Jianghuai region, South China, and Southwest China), while the increasing amplitude of heavy precipitation and the number of heavy precipitation days are greater in the warm and humid regions of China than that in the northern regions (North China, Northwest China, and Northeast China). In addition, changes are much more obvious in winter than in summer, indicating that the changes in the precipitation frequency are more affected by the increasing temperature during winter than summer. The shape and scale parameters of the distribution of daily precipitation at most stations of China have increased under the background of global warming. The scale parameter changes are smaller than the shape parameter changes in all regions except Northwest China. This suggests that daily precipitation shifts toward heavy precipitation in China under the warming climate. The number of extreme precipitation events increases slightly, indicating that changes in the distribution fitting parameters reflect changes in the regional precipitation distribution structure.More+
Abstract：Daily precipitation data from 153 meteorological stations over Northwest China during summer from 1963 to 2012 were selected to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of extreme summer precipitation frequency. The results show that the extreme precipitation frequency was regional dependent. Southern Gansu, northern Qinghai, and southern Shaanxi provinces exhibited a high extreme precipitation frequency and were prone to abrupt changes in the frequency. Northwest China was further divided into three sub-regions (northern, central, and southern) based on cluster analysis of the 50-yr extreme precipitation frequency series for each meteorological station. The extreme precipitation frequency changes were manifested in the northern region during the late 1970s and in the central region from the end of the 1980s to the 1990s. The southern region fluctuated on a timescale of quasi-10 yr. This study also explored the mechanism of changes in extreme precipitation frequency. The results demonstrate that stratification stability, atmospheric water vapor content, and upward motion all affected the changes in extreme precipitation frequency.More+
Abstract：The effects of doubled carbon dioxide on rainfall responses to radiative processes of water clouds are investigated in this study. Two groups of two-dimensional cloud-resolving model sensitivity experiments with regard to pre-summer heavy rainfall around the summer solstice and tropical rainfall around the winter solstice are conducted and their five-day averages over the model domain are analyzed. In the presence of radiative effects of ice clouds, doubled carbon dioxide changes pre-summer rainfall from the decrease associated with the enhanced atmospheric cooling to the increase associated with the enhanced infrared cooling as a result of the exclusion of radiative effects of water clouds. Doubled carbon dioxide leads to the reduction in tropical rainfall, caused by the removal of radiative effects of water clouds through the suppressed infrared cooling. In the absence of radiative effects of ice clouds, doubled carbon dioxide changes pre-summer rainfall from the increase associated with the strengthened atmospheric warming to the decrease associated with the weakened release of latent heat caused by the elimination of radiative effects of water clouds. The exclusion of radiative effects of water clouds increases tropical rainfall through the strengthened infrared cooling, which is insensitive to the change in carbon dioxide.More+
Abstract：Characteristics of convective initiation (CI) in the Beijing-Tianjin region during the warm season of2008-2013 are examined. A total of 38877 CI cases are identified by a thunderstorm identification, tracking, analysis, and nowcasting algorithm. CI cases are evaluated in the context of associated terrain, weather systems, and land cover properties. The spatial distribution of all CI cases shows that there are dense CI activities around the 200-m elevation, which means that convective storms are more easily triggered over foothills. From 1500-1800 to 0300-0600 BT (Beijing Time), the high-occurrence CI region tends to propagate southeastward (i.e., from mountains to plains, then to ocean). Among the four local weather systems, the Mongolian cold vortex has the highest CI frequency while the after-trough system has the lowest CI frequency. For the land cover relationships with CI, the urban land cover has the highest CI density and the forest-type land cover has the second highest CI density; these two types of land cover are more conducive to CI formation.More+
Abstract：A straight-line wind case was observed in Tianjin on 13 June 2005, which was caused by a gust front from a squall line. Mesoscale analyses based on observations from in-situ surface stations, sounding, and in-situ radar as well as fine-scale analyses based on observation tower data were performed. The mesoscale characteristics of the gust front determined its shape and fine-scale internal structures. Based on the scale and wavelet analyses, the fine-scale structures within the gust front were distinguished from the classical mesoscale structures, and such fine-scale structures were associated with the distribution of straight-line wind zones. A series of cross-frontal fine-scale circulations at the lowest levels of the gust front was discovered, which caused a relatively weak wind zone within the frontal strong wind zone. The downdraft at the rear of the head region of the gust front was more intense than in the classical model, and similar to the microburst, a series of vertical vortices propagated from the rear region to the frontal region. In addition, strong tangential fine-scale instability was detected in the frontal region. Finally, a fine-scale gust front model with straight-line wind zones is presented.More+
Abstract：The impact of climate change on maize potential productivity and the potential productivity gap in Southwest China (SWC) are investigated in this paper. We analyze the impact of climate change on the photosynthetic, light-temperature, and climatic potential productivity of maize and their gaps in SWC, by using a crop growth dynamics statistical method. During the maize growing season from 1961 to 2010, minimum temperature increased by 0.20℃ per decade (p 0.01) across SWC. The largest increases in average and minimum temperatures were observed mostly in areas of Yunnan Province. Growing season average sunshine hours decreased by 0.2 h day-1 per decade (p 0.01) and total precipitation showed an insignificant decreasing trend across SWC. Photosynthetic potential productivity decreased by 298 kg ha-1 per decade (p 0.05). Both light-temperature and climatic potential productivity decreased (p 0.05) in the northeast of SWC, whereas they increased (p 0.05) in the southwest of SWC. The gap between light-temperature and climatic potential productivity varied from 12 to 2729 kg ha-1, with the high value areas centered in northern and southwestern SWC. Climatic productivity of these areas reached only 10%-24% of the light-temperature potential productivity, suggesting that there is great potential to increase the maize potential yield by improving water management in these areas. In particular, the gap has become larger in the most recent 10 years. Sensitivity analysis shows that the climatic potential productivity of maize is most sensitive to changes in temperature in SWC. The findings of this study are helpful for quantification of irrigation water requirements so as to achieve maximum yield potentials in SWC.More+
Abstract：Crop yields are affected by climate change and technological advancement. Objectively and quantitatively evaluating the attribution of crop yield change to climate change and technological advancement will ensure sustainable development of agriculture under climate change. In this study, daily climate variables obtained from 553 meteorological stations in China for the period 1961-2010, detailed observations of maize from 653 agricultural meteorological stations for the period 1981-2010, and results using an Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZ) model, are used to explore the attribution of maize (Zea mays L.) yield change to climate change and technological advancement. In the AEZ model, the climatic potential productivity is examined through three step-by-step levels: photosynthetic potential productivity, photosynthetic thermal potential productivity, and climatic potential productivity. The relative impacts of different climate variables on climatic potential productivity of maize from 1961 to 2010 in China are then evaluated. Combined with the observations of maize, the contributions of climate change and technological advancement to maize yield from 1981 to 2010 in China are separated. The results show that, from 1961 to 2010, climate change had a significant adverse impact on the climatic potential productivity of maize in China. Decreased radiation and increased temperature were the main factors leading to the decrease of climatic potential productivity. However, changes in precipitation had only a small effect. The maize yields of the 14 main planting provinces in China increased obviously over the past 30 years, which was opposite to the decreasing trends of climatic potential productivity. This suggests that technological advancement has offset the negative effects of climate change on maize yield. Technological advancement contributed to maize yield increases by 99.6%-141.6%, while climate change contribution was from-41.4% to 0.4%. In particular, the actual maize yields in Shandong, Henan, Jilin, and Inner Mongolia increased by 98.4, 90.4, 98.7, and 121.5 kg hm-2 yr-1 over the past 30 years, respectively. Correspondingly, the maize yields affected by technological advancement increased by 113.7, 97.9, 111.5, and 124.8 kg hm-2 yr-1, respectively. On the contrary, maize yields reduced markedly under climate change, with an average reduction of-9.0 kg hm-2 yr-1. Our findings highlight that agronomic technological advancement has contributed dominantly to maize yield increases in China in the past three decades.More+
Vol. 28, No. 6, Jun 2025
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