Does the Negative Arctic Oscillation Always Favor Winter PM2.5 Diffusion in North China?

Previous studies have reported a close relationship between the negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the PM2.5 diffusion in North China in winter. Using the North China regional mean meridional wind at 850 hPa derived from the ERA5 reanalysis data in 1979–2022 as a useful substitute for station observed PM2.5 concentration (since the latter is available only since 2014), our study detected strong/weak northerly events representing the abnormal PM2.5 diffusion/accumulation events, and revisited the AO–PM2.5 diffusion relationship in North China during 1979–2022. The results show that only when the AO was characterized by a 2-month continuously negative/positive phases and with twin peaks respectively before and after the diffusion/accumulation events, would there be higher occurrences of the abnormal PM2.5 diffusion/accumulation. The second peak of negative AO acted to prolong the strong northerly winds by an average of 2 days. Further analysis reveals that the AO with twin peaks always has a footprint in the stratospheric Northern Annular Mode (NAM) during the abnormal PM2.5 events, and the coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere plays a critical role in the second peak of AO. Vertical propagation of baroclinically amplifying waves leads to changes in isentropic meridional mass fluxes in the stratosphere following the changes in the troposphere. The stronger/weaker poleward mass fluxes increase/decrease the polar mass in the stratosphere, which dominates the total column air mass changes and leads to the second peak of AO. Considering the sub-seasonal predictability of the stratospheric NAM based on existing evidence, particular attention should be paid to these AO-related abnormal PM2.5 diffusion and accumulation events in North China because they might be more predictable at a longer lead time.