Impact of Antecedent Soil Moisture Anomalies over the Indo-China Peninsula on the Super Meiyu Event in 2020

Yinshuo DONG; Haishan CHEN; Xuan DONG

doi:10.1007/s13351-023-2144-4

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Impact of Antecedent Soil Moisture Anomalies over the Indo-China Peninsula on the Super Meiyu Event in 2020

中南半岛前期土壤湿度异常对2020年超强梅雨的影响

Yinshuo DONG^{1, 2,},
Haishan CHEN^{1, 2, ,},
Xuan DONG^{1, 2,}

+ Author Affiliations + Find other works by these authors

Corresponding author: Haishan CHEN, haishan@nuist.edu.cn;

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Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2022YFF0801603)

DOI: 10.1007/s13351-023-2144-4

Abstract

Abstract

In the summer of 2020, a super Meiyu event occurred in the Yangtze River basin (YRB), causing enormous economic losses and human casualties. Recent studies have investigated the possible causes of this super Meiyu event from the perspective of anomalous atmospheric circulation activities and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies; however, the influence of land surface processes has not garnered considerable attention. This study investigates the possible contributions of land surface processes to this extreme event based on observational analysis and numerical simulations, and shows that antecedent soil moisture (SM) anomalies over the Indo-China Peninsula (ICP) may have had a vital influence on the super Meiyu in 2020. Negative SM anomalies in May over the ICP increased the surface temperature and sensible heat flux. The “memory” of soil allowed the anomalies to persist into the Meiyu period. The heating of the lower atmosphere by the surface strengthened the western Pacific subtropical high, which caused an anomalous anticyclone from the ICP to Northwest Pacific and thus enhanced the southwesterly winds and vertical motion over the YRB. Consequently, the water vapor flux and convergence were strengthened. Sensitivity experiments based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model further confirmed the results of observational analysis and indicated that the warm air heated by the ICP surface significantly warmed the lower troposphere from the ICP to Northwest Pacific under the influence of the background wind, thus increasing the geopotential height and inducing an anticyclone. The results of the sensitivity experiments showed that the SM anomalies in May over the ICP increased the precipitation by 10.6% from June to July over the YRB. These findings can improve our understanding of the mechanism of the super Meiyu event in 2020 and facilitate the prediction of extreme Meiyu events.
- super Meiyu,
- soil moisture,
- Indo-China Peninsula,
- surface heating
摘要

2020年夏季江淮流域发生的超强梅雨造成了巨大的经济损失和人员伤亡。最新的研究从大气环流异常活动、海温异常等角度探究了此次超强梅雨发生的可能原因，但陆面过程的影响并未引起重视。基于观测分析和数值模拟，本文探讨了陆面过程的可能贡献。研究表明，5月中南半岛地区土壤湿度负异常使地表温度升高、感热通量增加，土壤的“记忆性”使这些异常持续到梅雨期。被地表加热的低层大气有利于西太副高西伸增强，中南半岛到西北太平洋上空出现异常反气旋，增强了长江中下游地区上空的西南风和垂直运动，进而使水汽输送和水汽辐合加强，最终造成梅雨期降水的显著增加。基于WRF模式的敏感性试验进一步证实了观测分析的结果，试验结果表明中南半岛5月土壤湿度异常能够引起6‒7月长江中下游地区降水量增加10.6%。研究结果有助于进一步理解2020年超强梅雨的形成机理，为极端梅雨的预测提供一定参考。
- 超强梅雨,
- 土壤湿度,
- 中南半岛,
- 地表加热

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Fig. 4. First SVD mode of heterogeneous maps between (a) the SM in May and (b) precipitation during June and July. The black dotted areas are significant at the 5% significance level. (c) The expansion coefficients of the first SVD mode. (d) Time series of the standardized regional average SM over the ICP (black box in Fig. 4a) based on the ERA-5 (black solid line), ESA-CCI (red dash dotted line), and GLDAS (blue dashed line) data. All data are linearly detrended and standardized for the period of 1991–2020 before SVD analysis.

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Fig. 1. (a) Terrain height (m) over the WRF model domain. The red box denotes the ICP (10º–20ºN, 97º–110ºE), whose SM was prescribed in sensitivity experiments, and the blue box denotes the YRB region (28º–34ºN, 105º–122ºE). (b) The soil moisture (SM, black solid line; m³ m⁻³), surface temperature (SKT, red solid line; K), surface sensible heat flux (SH, blue solid line; W m⁻²), and surface latent heat flux (LH, blue dashed line; W m⁻²) averaged over the ICP obtained by subtracting CLIM from CTRL from 1 May to 31 July 2020.

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Fig. 2. (a) Daily precipitation in 2020 (red bar; mm day⁻¹; left y-axis), daily accumulated precipitation since 1 June 2020 (red line; mm; right y-axis), climatological daily precipitation (black dot; mm day⁻¹; left y-axis), and climatological daily accumulated precipitation (black line; mm; right y-axis) over the YRB (black box in Fig. 2b). Gray lines indicate the annual daily accumulated precipitation in other years from 1991 to 2019 (mm; right y-axis) over the YRB. Spatial distributions averaged from 1 June to 31 July 2020 of (b) anomalies of precipitation (shaded; mm day⁻¹), wind at 500 hPa (vector; m s⁻¹), and geopotential height at 500 hPa (contour; gpm); (c) anomalies of vertical velocity (shaded; Pa s⁻¹), wind (vector; m s⁻¹), and geopotential height (contour; gpm) at 700 hPa; (d) anomalies of water vapor flux (vector; kg m⁻¹ s⁻¹) and convergence (shaded; 10⁻⁵ kg m⁻² s⁻¹) integrated from 1000 to 300 hPa; and (e) anomalies of temperature (shaded; K), wind (vector; m s⁻¹), and geopotential height (contour; gpm) at 850 hPa.

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Fig. 3. Anomalies of (a, e, i, m) soil moisture (SM, shaded; m³ m⁻³), (b, f, j, n) surface temperature (SKT, shaded; K), (c, g, k, o) surface sensible heat flux (SH, shaded; W m⁻²), and (d, h, l, p) surface latent heat flux (LH, shaded; W m⁻²) in May 2020 over the ICP, calculated from the (a–h) ERA-5 and (i–p) GLDAS data. The white dotted areas indicate anomaly values that are greater than the standard deviations.

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Fig. 5. Regression of (a) wind (vector) and geopotential height (shaded) at 700 hPa and (b) water vapor convergence (shaded) and water vapor flux (vector) vertically integrated from 1000 to 300 hPa in June and July to the standardized SM index in May. The white dotted areas are significant at the 5% level. All data are linearly detrended and standardized before the regression analysis from 1991 to 2020.

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Fig. 6. (a) Daily precipitation (shaded; mm day⁻¹), 850-hPa geopotential height (red contour; gpm), and 500-hPa wind (vector; m s⁻¹) in the (a, d) observation and (b, e) CTRL, and (c, f) their differences of reanalysis datasets. The gray solid lines represent the Tibetan Plateau region.

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Fig. 7. (a) Soil moisture (SM, shaded; 10⁻² m³ m⁻³), (b) surface temperature (SKT, shaded; K), (c) surface sensible heat flux (SH, shaded; W m⁻²), and (d) surface latent heat flux (LH, shaded; W m⁻²) in May 2020 over the ICP obtained by subtracting CLIM from CTRL. The black dotted areas are significant at the 5% level.

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Fig. 8. (a) Daily precipitation (shaded; mm day⁻¹), and 500-hPa wind (vector; m s⁻¹) and geopotential height (red contour; gpm); (b) 700-hPa vertical velocity (shaded; Pa s⁻¹), wind (vector; m s⁻¹), and geopotential height (contour; gpm); (c) water vapor flux (vector; kg m⁻¹ s⁻¹) and its divergence (shaded; 10⁻⁵ kg m⁻² s⁻¹), vertically integrated from 1000 to 300 hPa; (d) 850-hPa temperature (shaded; Pa s⁻¹), wind (vector; m s⁻¹), and geopotential height (contour; gpm), which are obtained by subtracting CLIM from CTRL and averaged from 1 June to 31 July 2020. The black arrows and white dotted areas are significant at the 5% level.

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Dong, Y. S., H. S. Chen, and X. Dong, 2023: Impact of antecedent soil moisture anomalies over the Indo-China Peninsula on the super Meiyu event in 2020. J. Meteor. Res., 37(2), 234–247, doi: 10.1007/s13351-023-2144-4.

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Manuscript History

Received: 15 September 2022

Revised: 29 October 2022

Accepted: 31 October 2022

Available online: 02 November 2022

Final form: 10 November 2022

Typeset Proofs: 06 February 2023

Issue in Progress: 28 February 2023

Published online: 25 April 2023

Impact of Antecedent Soil Moisture Anomalies over the Indo-China Peninsula on the Super Meiyu Event in 2020

中南半岛前期土壤湿度异常对2020年超强梅雨的影响

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