A Novel Identification of the Polar/Eurasia Pattern and Its Weather Impact in May


  • The Polar/Eurasia (POL) pattern was previously identified based on the empirical orthogonal function method and monthly mean data, in which the positive and negative phases are anti-symmetric in spatial distribution. This paper identifies the positive (POL+) and negative (POL) phases of the POL pattern through applying a novel approach, i.e., self-organizing maps, to daily 500-hPa geopotential height fields in May over 1948–2017. The POL+, POL1, and POL2 patterns defined by this method represent actual physical modes. The POL+ pattern features a wave train from the northeastern Atlantic/northern Europe via the subarctic regions of Eurasia to Lake Baikal. The POL1 pattern is characterized by a planetary-scale dipole pattern with a positive anomaly band over subarctic Eurasia and a negative anomaly band from central Asia to the Sea of Okhotsk. The anomaly centers of the POL2 pattern are basically anti-symmetrical tothose of the POL+ pattern. The POL+ pattern increases the blocking frequency over the northeastern Atlantic/northern Europe and northeastern Asia, where high-frequency transient eddies are highly recurrent in the north. Accordingly, precipitation increases apparently in the subarctic Asian continent and western Siberia, and decreases around Europe and Lake Baikal. A mimic wave train is also observed in the surface air temperature anomaly field. During the POL1 period, the blocking frequency is abnormally high over Eurasia, whereas high-frequency transient eddies are apparently suppressed over northern Eurasia. Correspondingly, significant precipitation deficits are observed in northern Eurasia. The POL1 pattern also causes a remarkable temperature increase in the subarctic seas of Eurasia and a considerable temperature drop in the midlatitude Asian continent. As the POL2 pattern prevails, the blocking frequency decreases over the North Atlantic/Europe but strengthens over the Asian continent. The POL2 pattern also causes wavelike anomalies of precipitation and surface air temperature over northern Eurasia.
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