DIAGNOSIS OF ANOMALOUS PATTERNS OF PRECIPITATION IN NORTH CHINA AND CLIMATIC PREDICTION EXPERIMENTS

In the context of 1965-2000 monthly rainfall data from 73 stations distributed over 3 province level districts and 2 metropolises (Beijing and Tianjin) of North China with some stations in the neighboring provinces,diagnostic study is undertaken of the features of spatially anomalous patterns and dominant periods of the annual precipitation in terms of EOF,REOF and SSA.Also,a scheme consisting of SSA combined with autoregression (AR) as a prediction model is employed to make forecasts of monthly rainfall sequences of the anomalous patterns in terms of an adaptive filter.Results show that the scheme,if further improved,would be of operational utility in preparing county-level prediction.