EXPERIMENTS OF SHORT-TERM CLIMATE PREDICTION BY THE OSU/NCC GCM FOR SUMMER SEASON IN CHINA^*

By using of an ensemble method,the tests of rainfall for the predictions of the seasonal,interseasonal and annual scales in China during 1982-1995 have been made by the atmospheric GCM/mixed layer ocean and ice model(OSU/NCC).Contrasts between forecasts by the OSU/NCC and the observations show that the model has a certain ability in the prediction of precipitation for summer over China in all of the three different time scales.And it indicates that the interseasonal prediction is the best among the forecasts of three scales.It is also indicated that the prediction is especially acceptable in certain areas.