THE INFLUENCE OF ARCTIC AND ANTARCTIC ICE ON SOUTHERN OSCILLATION^*

The analysis of the relationship between sea ice in Arctic and Antarctic,and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) variation on the temporal scale of month,season and year is made in this paper.The negative correlation between sea ice in Arctic and the SOI.and the positive correlation between sea ice in Antarctic and the SOI are found.The variation of sea ice in Antarctic Pacific seems to play an important role in the influence to atmosphere.Their nonlinear relationships present more strongly than the linear relationship between them.The relationship between sea ice in Arctic and Antarctic and the SOI in the early stage is investigated.Their variation shows periodic phenomena.The maximum correlation is used to build the model for forecasting the variation of the SOI on the condition of the sea ice in Arctic and Antarctic.The explained variance of the simulated series is greater than 0.90.There exists a 17-month period in the relationship between sea ice in Arctic and Antarctic and SOI.The existing of the common factor with larger scale is discussed in this paper.