A PRELIMINARY SIMULATION OF EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON RICE IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER REACHES OF CI-IANGJIANG RIVER AND WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION ON THE HUANG-HUAI-HAI PLAIN

In this paper,based on the analysis of the variation of effective accumulated temperature and precipitation in the last 100 years,together with the potential impacts of greenhouse effects on the climate in China simulated with the current major climatic models(GFDL,GISS,NCAR,OSU and UKMO),the impacts of climate change on rice in the middle and lower reaches of Changjiang River and winter wheat production on the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain* are simulated with the available weather-yield statistic models on the assumption that temperature variation ranges 1-4℃ and precipitation variation ranges ±10-20%.The result is that under the current planting systems and agrotechniques,the impact of climate change on wheat production is more significant than that on rice;the climatic conditions of agricultural production in the north of China will become more favourable while those in the south of the middle and lower reaches of Changjiang River remain the same;but those in the southern part of North China and the basins between Changjiang River and Haihe River are rather unstable.In general,it is difficult to reach the conclusion that advantages or disadvantages dominate in such climate changes because of uncertainties.