THE MONTHLY PREDICTION EXPERIMENTS USING A COUPLED ANALOGY-DYNAMICAL MODEL

Considering from point of view of the dynamics,it is convenient to regard the field to be predicted as a small disturbance superposed on the historical analogous field,and thus the statistical technique can be used in combining with the dynamics.Along this line,a coupled atmosphere-earth surface analogy-dynamical model is formulated and applied to making monthly prediction.This approach facilitated the utility of the useful information contained in both the historical data set and the initial field to improve the dynamic model based solo on the latter and show better skill in prediction.