On short-range climate prediction of the onset and intensity of the south china sea summer monsoon

The short-range climate predictions of the onset and intensity of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) are studied by statistical and synthesis methods.The relationship between the South China Sea monsoon index (SCSMI) and the environmental fields, such as 850 hPa winds, 500 hPa heights, SSTs, OLR, is examined.The possible mechanism of the relationship with SCSSM is discussed.The anomaly of the winter SCSMI and the preceding environmental fields may be used as a precursor signal to predict the onset and intensity of SCSSM.Based on the above research results, a conceptual model was constructed to predict the onset and intensity of SCSSM. The results for the trial prediction during 1998 to 2001 have presented satisfactory results.