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Abstract
In this paper, seasonal prediction of spring dust weather frequency (DWF) in Beijing during 1982-2008
has been performed. First, correlation analyses are conducted to identify antecedent climate signals during
last winter that are statistically significantly related to spring DWF in Beijing. Then, a seasonal prediction
model of spring DWF in Beijing is established through multivariate linear regression analysis, in which the
systematic error between the result of original prediction model and the observation, averaged over the last
10 years, is corrected. In addition, it is found that climate signals occurring synchronously with spring dust
weather, particularly meridional wind at 850 hPa over western Mongolian Plateau, are also linked closely
to spring DWF in Beijing. As such, statistical and dynamic prediction approaches should be combined to
include these synchronous predictors into the prediction model in the real-time operational prediction, so
as to further improve the prediction accuracy of spring DWF in Beijing, even over North China. However,
realizing such a prediction idea in practice depends essentially on the ability of climate models in predicting
key climate signals associated with spring DWF in Beijing.
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Citation
LANG Xianmei. 2011: Seasonal Prediction of Spring Dust Weather Frequency in Beijing. Journal of Meteorological Research, 25(5): 682-690.
LANG Xianmei. 2011: Seasonal Prediction of Spring Dust Weather Frequency in Beijing. Journal of Meteorological Research, 25(5): 682-690.
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LANG Xianmei. 2011: Seasonal Prediction of Spring Dust Weather Frequency in Beijing. Journal of Meteorological Research, 25(5): 682-690.
LANG Xianmei. 2011: Seasonal Prediction of Spring Dust Weather Frequency in Beijing. Journal of Meteorological Research, 25(5): 682-690.
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