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Abstract
Based on the B08RDP (Beijing 2008 Olympic Games Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction Research and De-
velopment Project) that was launched by the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) in 2004, a
regional ensemble prediction system (REPS) at a 15-km horizontal resolution was developed at the Na-
tional Meteorological Center (NMC) of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA). Supplementing to
the forecasters' subjective affirmation on the promising performance of the REPS during the 2008 Beijing
Olympic Games (BOG), this paper focuses on the objective verification of the REPS for precipitation fore-
casts during the BOG period. By use of a set of advanced probabilistic verification scores, the value of the
REPS compared to the quasi-operational global ensemble prediction system (GEPS) is assessed for a 36-day
period (21 July-24 August 2008). The evaluation here involves different aspects of the REPS and GEPS,
including their general forecast skills, specific attributes (reliability and resolution), and related economic
values. The results indicate that the REPS generally performs significantly better for the short-range pre-
cipitation forecasts than the GEPS, and for light to heavy rainfall events, the REPS provides more skillful
forecasts for accumulated 6- and 24-h precipitation. By further identifying the performance of the REPS
through the attribute-focused measures, it is found that the advantages of the REPS over the GEPS come
from better reliability (smaller biases and better dispersion) and increased resolution. Also, evaluation of a
decision-making score reveals that a much larger group of users benefits from using the REPS forecasts than
using the single model (the control run) forecasts, especially for the heavy rainfall events.
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Citation
LI Xiaoli, TIAN Hua, DENG Guo. 2011: Evaluation of the NMC Regional Ensemble Prediction System During the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games. Journal of Meteorological Research, 25(5): 568-580.
LI Xiaoli, TIAN Hua, DENG Guo. 2011: Evaluation of the NMC Regional Ensemble Prediction System During the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games. Journal of Meteorological Research, 25(5): 568-580.
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LI Xiaoli, TIAN Hua, DENG Guo. 2011: Evaluation of the NMC Regional Ensemble Prediction System During the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games. Journal of Meteorological Research, 25(5): 568-580.
LI Xiaoli, TIAN Hua, DENG Guo. 2011: Evaluation of the NMC Regional Ensemble Prediction System During the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games. Journal of Meteorological Research, 25(5): 568-580.
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