The Optimized Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Based on Singular Vector Calculations

In ensemble forecast, by summing up ensemble members, filtering the uncertainty, and retaining the common component, the ensemble mean with a better result can be achieved. However, the filtering works only when the initial perturbation develops nonlinearly. If the initial perturbation propagates in a linear space,the positive and negative members will counteract, leading to little difference between ensemble mean and control forecast and finally insignificant ensemble result. In 1-2-day ensemble forecast, based on singular vector (SV) calculations, to avoid this insignificance, the counteracting members originated from the same SV are advised not to put into the ensemble system together; the only candidate should be the one with the better forecast. Based on the ingredient analysis of initial perturbation development, a method to select ensemble members is presented in this paper, which can fulfill the above requirement. The regional model MM5V1 of NCAR/PSU (National Center for Atmosphere Research/Pennsylvania State University) and its corresponding tangent adjoint model are used. The ensemble spread and forecast errors are calculated with dry energy norm. Two mesoscale lows on the Meiyu front along the Yangtze River are examined. According to the analysis of the perturbation ingredient, among couples of counteracting members from di?erent SVs,those members performing better always have smaller or greater spread compared with other members.Following this thinking, an optimized ensemble and an inferior ensemble are identified. The ensemble mean of the optimized ensemble is more accurate than that of the inferior ensemble , and the former also performs better than the traditional ensemble with positive and negative members simultaneously. As for growth of the initial perturbation, those initial perturbations originated from the summed SVs grow more quickly than those from the single SV, and they enlarge the range of spread of the ensemble effectively, thus leading to better performance of ensemble members.