The Arctic and Antarctic Oscillations in the IPCC AR4 Coupled Models

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  • Funds:

    Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 40523001 and 40631005, and Chinese Academy of Sciences under Grant Nos. KZCX2-YW-Q1-02 and KZCX2-YW-Q11-05.

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  • This study evaluates the fidelity of Arctic and Antarctic oscillations (AO and AAO for short, respectively)in the coupled general circulation models participating in the Fourth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4). The AO and AAO during 1970-1999 in 24 models are analyzed and compared with that in ERA-40 and NCEP-1. Models' performance is seasonally dependent, with best reproducibility of both spatial structure and trend in winter. In most models, the spatial pattern and temporal trend of AAO during this period are more delicately simulated than AO. After picking out models with better performance according to the Taylor diagram, we find that their ensemble mean can obviously improve models' reproducibility. The AO and AAO in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES)A1B Projection during the 21st century are also briefiy analyzed. The results reveal that both the AO and AAO indices keep increasing during 1970-2099, with a steadier pace of AO than AAO. The spatial difference of sea level pressure between 2060-2089 and 1970-1999 shows decreased values in polar regions,and increased values in midlatitudes. The results manifest that the ozone recovery during the mid 21st century may not weaken such a trend.
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    沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

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The Arctic and Antarctic Oscillations in the IPCC AR4 Coupled Models

  • 1. Nansen-Zhu International Research Center,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Acadamy of Sciences,Beijing 100029 Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049 Climate Change Research Centre,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029;
    Nansen-Zhu International Research Center,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Acadamy of Sciences,Beijing 100029 Climate Change Research Centre,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029
Funds: Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 40523001 and 40631005, and Chinese Academy of Sciences under Grant Nos. KZCX2-YW-Q1-02 and KZCX2-YW-Q11-05.

Abstract: This study evaluates the fidelity of Arctic and Antarctic oscillations (AO and AAO for short, respectively)in the coupled general circulation models participating in the Fourth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4). The AO and AAO during 1970-1999 in 24 models are analyzed and compared with that in ERA-40 and NCEP-1. Models' performance is seasonally dependent, with best reproducibility of both spatial structure and trend in winter. In most models, the spatial pattern and temporal trend of AAO during this period are more delicately simulated than AO. After picking out models with better performance according to the Taylor diagram, we find that their ensemble mean can obviously improve models' reproducibility. The AO and AAO in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES)A1B Projection during the 21st century are also briefiy analyzed. The results reveal that both the AO and AAO indices keep increasing during 1970-2099, with a steadier pace of AO than AAO. The spatial difference of sea level pressure between 2060-2089 and 1970-1999 shows decreased values in polar regions,and increased values in midlatitudes. The results manifest that the ozone recovery during the mid 21st century may not weaken such a trend.

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