Thrusts and Prospects on Understanding and Predicting Asian Monsoon Climate

Development of monsoon climate prediction through integrated research efforts to improve our understanding of monsoon variability and predictability is a primary goal of the Asian Monsoon Years (2007-2011) and International Monsoon Study under the leadership of the World Climate Research Programme. The present paper reviews recent progress in Asian monsoon research focusing on (1) understanding and modeling of the monsoon variability, (2) determining the sources and limits of predictability, and (3) assessing the current status of climate prediction, with emphasis on the weekly to interannual time scales. Particular attention is paid to identify scientific issues and thrust areas, as well as potential directions to move forward in an attempt to stimulate future research to advance our understanding of monsoon climate dynamics and improve our capability to forecast Asian monsoon climate variation.