Emerging Tele-connected Patterns Enhance Predictability of East Asian Summer Extremes

The East Asian summer monsoon regions are highly susceptible to extreme weather and climate events, including floods, droughts, and tropical cyclones, which displace millions of people and cause substantial economic losses annually. While understanding these extremes is critical for disaster resilience, traditional forecasting frameworks often overlook key dynamical drivers. Recent advances have revealed emerging teleconnection patterns that exert significant influences on East Asian summer extremes. In this perspective, we highlight two dynamic pathways through which remote atmospheric variabilities, specifically, the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and deep convection over Pakistan, modulate the occurrence of East Asian summer floods and droughts. Here, we synthesize evidence for these underappreciated linkages and evaluate their potential to improve sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction. We argue that a comprehensive understanding of the dynamics and predictive utility of emerging teleconnections, as well as their changes in a warming climate, is a critical research priority for advancing toward a more reliable forecasting framework.