Overview and Prospect of Data Assimilation in Numerical Weather Prediction

For numerical weather prediction (NWP), data assimilation (DA) combines short-term forecasts and various atmospheric observations to achieve optimal initial conditions, based on which subsequent forecasts are launched. With the rapid advancements in numerical models and observing systems, DA has been significantly evolved. Modern methods now can account for uncertainties of state variables across various spatiotemporal scales, incorporate multi-scale observation error statistics, and enforce dynamical constrains and model balances. Meanwhile, observations from various platforms, such as ground-based, aircraft, and satellite, have been assimilated. These include data from polar-orbiting and geostationary satellites, radar-derived radial winds and reflectivity, Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultations, etc. To further utilize the advanced observing systems and DA techniques for high-impact weather predictions, target observation strategies have been developed to identify areas where additional observations can yield the greatest predict improvements. Based on the advancements of DA theories and methods, China’s operational systems have made significant progress, establishing advanced operational DA systems. Over the past decade, the forecast skill of 5-d global weather prediction has improved by approximately 15%. The article reviews a century of development in DA, and discusses future directions, including the advanced DA methods, operational frameworks, integration of novel observations, and the synergy between DA and artificial intelligence.