Role of Intraseasonal Oscillation in a Compound Drought and Heat Event over the Middle of the Yangtze River Basin during Midsummer 2018


  • In late July 2018, a compound drought and heat event (CDHE) occurred in the middle of the Yangtze River basin (MYRB) and caused great damage to the national economy. The CDHE over the MYRB has been documented to be linked with intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) from different regions. However, specific roles of different ISOs on the development of the CDHE cannot be separated in the observational analysis. By using partial lateral forcing experiments driven by ISO in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, we found that the midlatitude ISO generated by a westerly wave train in the upper troposphere played an important role in this heatwave and drought event in the northern MYRB, causing a regional average temperature rise of 1.65°C and intensification of drought over 23.49% of the MYRB area. On the other hand, the ISO associated with the Pacific−Japan (PJ)-like teleconnection wave train in the lower troposphere induced a more pronounced impact on the event, causing an average temperature rise of 2.44°C, intensifying drought over 29.62% of the MYRB area. The MYRB was mainly affected by northward warm advection driven by the westward extension of the western North Pacific subtropical high in the early period of the CDHE development. In the late period, because of the establishment of a deep positive geopotential height field through the troposphere leading to intensive local subsidence, there was a remarkable temperature rise and moisture decrease in the MYRB. The results will facilitate a better understanding of the occurrence of CDHE and provide empirical precursory signals for subseasonal forecast of CDHE.
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