Climatic Warming and Humidification in the Arid Region of Northwest China: Multi-Scale Characteristics and Impacts on Ecological Vegetation

Qiang ZHANG; Jinhu YANG; Wei WANG; Pengli MA; Guoyang LU; Xiaoyun LIU; Haipeng YU; Feng FANG

doi:10.1007/s13351-021-0105-3

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Climatic Warming and Humidification in the Arid Region of Northwest China: Multi-Scale Characteristics and Impacts on Ecological Vegetation

Qiang ZHANG^{1, 2,},
Jinhu YANG^3, ,,
Wei WANG^1,,
Pengli MA^3,,
Guoyang LU^3,,
Xiaoyun LIU^1,,
Haipeng YU^4,,
Feng FANG^3,

+ Author Affiliations + Find other works by these authors

Corresponding author: Jinhu YANG, yjh740701@sina.com;

Funds:

Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41630426 and 41975016) and Climate Change Special Project of the China Meteorological Administration (CCSF201913 and CCSF202010)

DOI: 10.1007/s13351-021-0105-3

Abstract

Abstract

The climatic warming and humidification observed in the arid region of Northwest China (ARNC) and their impacts on the ecological environment have become an issue of concern. The associated multi-scale characteristics and environmental responses are currently poorly understood. Using data from satellite remote sensing, field observations, and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6, this paper systematically analyzes the process and scale characteristics of the climatic warming and humidification in the ARNC and their impacts on ecological vegetation. The results show that not only have temperature and precipitation increased significantly in the ARNC over the past 60 years, but the increasing trend of precipitation is also obviously intensifying. The dryness index, which comprehensively considers the effects of precipitation and temperature, has clearly decreased, and the trend in humidification has increased. Spatially, the trend of temperature increase has occurred over the entire region, while 93.4% of the region has experienced an increase in precipitation, suggesting a spatially consistent climatic warming and humidification throughout the ARNC. Long-term trends and interannual changes in temperature and precipitation dominate the changes in climatic warming and humidification. Compared to interannual variations in temperature, the trend change of temperature contributes more to the overall temperature change. However, the contribution of interannual variations in precipitation is greater than that of the precipitation trend to the overall precipitation change. The current climatic warming and humidification generally promote the growth of ecological vegetation. Since the 1980s, 82.4% of the regional vegetation has thrived. The vegetation index has a significant positive correlation with precipitation and temperature. However, it responds more significantly to interannual precipitation variation, although the vegetation response varies significantly under different types of land use. The warming and humidification of the climate in the ARNC are probably related to intensifications of the westerly wind circulation and ascending air motions. They are expected to continue in the future, although the strength of the changes will probably be insufficient to significantly change the basic climate pattern in the ARNC. The results of this study provide helpful information for decision making related to China’s “Belt and Road” development strategies.
- arid region of Northwest China (ARNC),
- climatic warming and humidification,
- ecological vegetation,
- multi-scale,
- synergistic effect

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Fig. 1. Distributions of (a) vegetation type (shading) and meteorological stations (black dot) and (b) geographic elevation (shading) and preci-pitation (contour) in the arid region of Northwest China (ARNC).

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Fig. 2. Correlations of (a) temperature and (b) precipitation between the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble results and the observed values.

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Fig. 3. Changes in (a) temperature, (b) precipitation, and (c) the dryness index during 1961–2018.

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Fig. 4. Comparison of the average rates of temperature, precipitation, and dryness index variations between 1961–1990 and 1991–2018.

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Fig. 5. Spatial distributions of the variation rates of (a) temperature [°C (10 yr) ⁻¹] and (b) precipitation [% (10 yr) ⁻¹] during 1961–2018.

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Fig. 6. Probability distributions of (a) temperature and (b) precipitation variation rates relative to the total area of the ARNC during 1961–2018.

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Fig. 7. Variations of (a) temperature and (b) precipitation at different timescales based on the EEMD decomposition.

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Fig. 8. Spatial distribution of average NDVI in the ARNC during 1981–2015.

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Fig. 9. (a) Spatial distribution and (b) probability distribution of NDVI increase [(10 yr)⁻¹] in the ARNC during 1981–2015.

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Fig. 10. Correlations of NDVI index with temperature and precipitation in desert, grassland, cultivated land, and town, respectively.

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Fig. 11. Comparison of regional average NDVI index under different temperature and precipitation conditions.

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Fig. 12. (a) Variations of the westerly index and precipitation index. (b) Scatter plot of the correlation between the westerly index and precipitation index.

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Fig. 13. (a) Variation curves and (b) scatter plot of vertical velocity, net water vapor flux, and precipitation index.

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Fig. 14. Changes in distributions of (a) temperature and (b) precipitation in the ARNC during the periods 1961–1990 and 1991–2018 (arrows indicate the direction of movement of the average climatic state).

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Fig. 15. Variations of (a) temperature and (b) precipitation observed in the ARNC over the past 60 years and predicted by the CMIP6 ensemble model over the next 80 years.

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Table 1 Contributions of temperature changes at different timescales decomposed by using the EEMD method

	IMF1	IMF2	IMF3	IMF4	Long-term trend
Contribution (%)	18.9	12.1	2.3	2.8	63.9
Period (yr)	3.2	8.9	17.3	37.5	/

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Table 2 Contributions of precipitation changes at different timescales decomposed by using the EEMD method

	IMF1	IMF2	IMF3	IMF4	Long-term trend
Contribution (%)	51.5	12.9	1.8	1.7	32.1
Period (yr)	3.1	7.3	16.6	38.7	/

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Table 3 Correlation coefficients of temperature and precipitation with the NDVI index in the ARNC before and after detrending, respectively

	Before detrending				After detrending
	Precipitation in previous year	Precipitation in current year	Temperature in previous year	Temperature in current year	Precipitation in previous year	Precipitation in current year	Temperature in previous year	Temperature in current year
NDVI	0.38^**	0.51^***	0.62^***	0.56^***	0.19	0.37^**	0.17	−0.04
Note: ^, ^, and ^** indicate that the correlation is significant at the confidence levels above 90%, 95%, and 99%, respectively.

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Zhang, Q., J. H. Yang, W. Wang, et al., 2021: Climatic warming and humidification in the arid region of Northwest China: Multi-scale characteristics and impacts on ecological vegetation. J. Meteor. Res., 35(1), 113–127, doi: 10.1007/s13351-021-0105-3.

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Manuscript History

Received: 26 June 2020

Available online: 09 October 2020

Final form: 21 September 2020

Issue in Progress: 14 December 2020

Published online: 06 February 2021

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Climatic Warming and Humidification in the Arid Region of Northwest China: Multi-Scale Characteristics and Impacts on Ecological Vegetation