# Construction and Application of a Climate Risk Index for China

• In the context of global warming, China is facing with increasing climate risks. It is imperative to develop quantitative indices to reflect the climate risks caused by extreme weather/climate events and adverse climatic conditions in association with different industries. Based on the observations at 2288 meteorological stations in China and the meteorological disasters data, a set of indices are developed to measure climate risks due to water-logging, drought, high temperature, cryogenic freezing, and typhoon. A statistical method is then used to construct an overall climate risk index (CRI) for China from these individual indices. There is a good correspondence between these indices and historical climatic conditions. The CRI, the index of water-logging by rain, and the high temperature index increase at a rate of 0.28, 0.37, and 0.65 per decade, respectively, from 1961 to 2016. The cryogenic freezing index is closely related to changes in the consumer price index for food. The high temperature index is correlated with the consumption of energy and electricity. The correlation between the yearly growth in claims on household property insurance and the sum of the water-logging index and the typhoon index in the same year is as high as 0.70. Both the growth rate of claims on agricultural insurance and the annual growth rate of hospital inpatients are positively correlated with the CRI. The year-on-year growth in the number of domestic tourists is significantly negatively correlated with the CRI in the same year. More efforts are needed to develop regional CRIs.
• Fig. 1.  (a) Monthly and (b) annual evolutions of the drought index for China during 1961–2016, and (c) spatial distribution of the yearly drought index over China in 2001. The dashed line in (b) shows the linear trend, and the dots in (c) denote the provincial captical cities of China.

Fig. 2.  As in Fig. 1, but for the index of water-logging by rain.

Fig. 3.  As in Fig. 1, but for high temperature index.

Fig. 4.  As in Fig. 1, but for cryogenic freezing index.

Fig. 5.  As in Fig. 1, but for typhoon index.

Fig. 6.  As in Fig. 1, but for climate risk index (CRI).

Fig. 7.  Relationship between the cryogenic freezing index (blue) and the CPI for food (red) for (a) January, (b) February, and (c) the average of January and February.

Fig. 8.  Relationship between the high temperature index (blue) and (a) domestic electricity consumption (red) and (b) air conditioning sales (red).

Fig. 9.  Relationship between the climate risk index (blue) and the growth rate of number of domestic tourists (red).

Fig. 10.  Relationship between household property insurance (red) and (a) sum of the index of water-logging by rain and the typhoon index (blue) and (b) the climate risk index (blue).

Fig. 11.  Relationship between the year-on-year increase in inpatient numbers (red) and the climate risk index (blue).

###### 通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
• 1.

沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

## Construction and Application of a Climate Risk Index for China

###### Corresponding author: Lianchun SONG, songlc@cma.gov.cn;
• 1. Northwest Climate Center of Gansu Meteorological Bureau, Lanzhou 730020
• 2. National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081
• 3. Caixin Insight Group, Beijing 100027
Funds: Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2018YFA0606302 and 2012CB955900)

Abstract: In the context of global warming, China is facing with increasing climate risks. It is imperative to develop quantitative indices to reflect the climate risks caused by extreme weather/climate events and adverse climatic conditions in association with different industries. Based on the observations at 2288 meteorological stations in China and the meteorological disasters data, a set of indices are developed to measure climate risks due to water-logging, drought, high temperature, cryogenic freezing, and typhoon. A statistical method is then used to construct an overall climate risk index (CRI) for China from these individual indices. There is a good correspondence between these indices and historical climatic conditions. The CRI, the index of water-logging by rain, and the high temperature index increase at a rate of 0.28, 0.37, and 0.65 per decade, respectively, from 1961 to 2016. The cryogenic freezing index is closely related to changes in the consumer price index for food. The high temperature index is correlated with the consumption of energy and electricity. The correlation between the yearly growth in claims on household property insurance and the sum of the water-logging index and the typhoon index in the same year is as high as 0.70. Both the growth rate of claims on agricultural insurance and the annual growth rate of hospital inpatients are positively correlated with the CRI. The year-on-year growth in the number of domestic tourists is significantly negatively correlated with the CRI in the same year. More efforts are needed to develop regional CRIs.

Reference (38)

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