Improving the Extreme Rainfall Forecast of Typhoon Morakot (2009) by Assimilating Radar Data from Taiwan Island and Mainland China

Xuwei BAO; Dan WU; Xiaotu LEI; Leiming MA; Dongliang WANG; Kun ZHAO; Ben Jong-Dao JOU

doi:10.1007/s13351-017-6007-8

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Improving the Extreme Rainfall Forecast of Typhoon Morakot (2009) by Assimilating Radar Data from Taiwan Island and Mainland China

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Corresponding author: Xuwei BAO, Baoxw@mail.typhoon.gov.cn;

Funds:

Supported by the National (Key) Basic Research and Development (973) Program of China (2013CB430300), China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund (GYHY201506007), National Natural Science Foundation of China (40921160381, 41005033, 41275067, and 41475059), and Typhoon Scientific and Technological Innovation Group Fund of Shanghai Meteorological Service

DOI: 10.1007/s13351-017-6007-8

Abstract

Abstract

This study examined the impact of an improved initial field through assimilating ground-based radar data from mainland China and Taiwan Island to simulate the long-lasting and extreme rainfall caused by Morakot (2009). The vortex location and the subsequent track analyzed through the radial velocity data assimilation (VDA) are generally consistent with the best track. The initial humidity within the radar detecting region and Morakot’s northward translation speed can be significantly improved by the radar reflectivity data assimilation (ZDA). As a result, the heavy rainfall on both sides of Taiwan Strait can be reproduced with the joint application of VDA and ZDA. Based on sensitivity experiments, it was found that, without ZDA, the simulated storm underwent an unrealistic inward contraction after 12-h integration, due to underestimation of humidity in the global reanalysis, leading to underestimation of rainfall amount and coverage. Without the vortex relocation via VDA, the moister (drier) initial field with (without) ZDA will produce a more southward (northward) track, so that the rainfall location on both sides of Taiwan Strait will be affected. It was further found that the improvement in the humidity field of Morakot is mainly due to assimilation of high-value reflectivity (strong convection) observed by the radars in Taiwan Island, especially at Kenting station. By analysis of parcel trajectories and calculation of water vapor flux divergence, it was also found that the improved typhoon circulation through assimilating radar data can draw more water vapor from the environment during the subsequent simulation, eventually contributing to the extreme rainfall on both sides of Taiwan Strait.
- Morakot,
- radar,
- assimilation,
- rainfall,
- simulation

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Fig. 1. The observed composite radar reflectivity (dBZ) from Taiwan Island and mainland China every 6 h from 0600 UTC 7 August to 0000 UTC 9 August 2009, except for 1500 UTC 7 August 2009.

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Fig. 2. The model domain with a resolution of 3 km. The solid circles denote the observed Typhoon Morakot locations every 6 h from 1200 UTC 7 August to 1200 UTC 9 August, based on the best-track data of the China Meteorological Administration. The locations of the radar stations (WZ, Wenzhou station; FZ, Fuzhou station; XM, Xiamen station; HL, Hualien station; ST, Shantou station; CG, Chigu station; KT, Kenting station) are marked by filled triangles, and their maximum ranges of coverage are indicated by the circles.

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Fig. 3. Illustration of the experimental design and data assimilation (DA) scheme. Except for CTRL, with a 48-h forecast starting at 1200 UTC 7 August, the other experiments performed 45-h forecasts after 4-h DA cycles at 1500 UTC 7 August.

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Fig. 4. Analysis increments of column-integrated water vapor (g kg^–1) and horizontal wind (≥ 2.5 m s^–1) at z = 3 km for (a–c) the first analysis at 1200 UTC 7 August and (d–f) the second analysis at 1300 UTC 7 August from (a, d) Exp-all, (b, e) Exp-dbz, and (c, f) Exp-rv.

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Fig. 5. The increments of (a, c) tangential and (b, d) radial wind components at z = 3 km from Exp-all for (a, b) the first analysis at 1200 UTC 7 August and (c, d) the second analysis at 1300 UTC 7 August.

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Fig. 6. Deviation of column-integrated analyzed water vapor (shading; g kg^–1) from (a) CTRL, (b) Exp-all, (c) Exp-dbz, (d) Exp-rv, (e) Exp-ml, (f) Exp-tw, and (g) Exp-kt, at 1500 UTC 7 August, against the initial field at 1200 UTC 7 August (the typhoon symbols denote the locations of the simulated typhoon centers at 1500 UTC 7 August), and (h) the column-integrated water vapor (q_v; g kg^–1) of each experiment, every 120-km-width annular within 600 km from the CMA best track at 1500 UTC 7 August.

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Fig. 7. Radius–time cross-sections of the azimuthally averaged (a) observed composite radar reflectivity (shading; dBZ), (b–e) simulated radar reflectivity (shading; dBZ), and (f–i) tangential wind (contour interval: 5 m s^–1, with the heavy contour for 30 m s^–1) at z = 3 km, and hourly accumulated rainfall (shading; mm) in (b, f) CTRL, (c, g) Exp-all, (d, h) Exp-dbz, and (e, i) Exp-rv from 1800 UTC 7 August to 0000 UTC 9 August (the dashed line denotes the radius of maximum wind).

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Fig. 8. (a) The central minimum sea level pressure (MSLP; hPa) and (b) best track of Typhoon Morakot (from the China Meteorological Administration; black line with triangles) every 6 h from 1200 UTC 7 August to 1200 UTC 9 August, and the simulated tracks in CTRL (blue line with circles), Exp-all (red line with circles), Exp-dbz (khaki line with circles), and Exp-rv (green line with circles). (c) The forecast mean flow [full (half) barbs are 4 (2) m s^–1] within 300–700 hPa and a radius of 600 km from the TC center from 1800 UTC 7 August to 0000 UTC 9 August.

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Fig. 9. Horizontal distributions of 10-m winds ( m s^–1) from (a) QuikSCAT observations and the numerical experiments of (b) CTRL, (c) Exp-all, (d) Exp-dbz, and (e) Exp-rv at around 1030 UTC 8 August.

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Fig. 10. (a1–a4) Observed composite and (b1–b4) simulated radar reflectivity (color shading; dBZ) and wind vectors (full barb is 10 m s^–1) at the fifth model level (η = 0.934), in (b1–b4) CTRL, (c1–c4) Exp-all, (d1–d4) Exp-dbz, and (e1–e4) Exp-rv at 1800 UTC 7 (first column), 0000 UTC 8 (second column), 1200 UTC 8 (third column), and 0000 UTC 9 August (fourth column).

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Fig. 11. Maps of 24-h accumulated rainfall (mm) from 0000 UTC 8 August to 0000 UTC 9 August: (a) observed by rain gauges in Taiwan, and simulated by (b) CTRL, (c) Exp-all, (d) Exp-dbz, (e) Exp-rv, (f) Exp-ml, (g) Exp-tw, and (h) Exp-kt (the county boundaries are marked by black lines, and the number denotes the peak rainfall amount). (i) Equitable threat scores of 24-h accumulated rainfall verified against surface rain gauges in Taiwan Island and mainland China.

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Fig. 12. As in Fig. 11, but for eastern China.

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Fig. 13. (a) Valid points of radar reflectivity (≥ 15 dBZ, marked by crosses) at 3-km height and Morakot’s location (typhoon symbol) at 1500 UTC 7 August (final data assimilation cycle). The locations of radar stations (FZ, XM, HL, CG, and KT) are marked by black dots. (b) As in Fig. 8b, but for Exp-ml, Exp-tw, and Exp-kt.

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Fig. 14. Fifteen-hour backward trajectories of air parcels near (a) Meishan at 0600 UTC 8 August (the center of the box with 600-km-long sides is the typhoon center at 1200 UTC 8 August), and (b–d) the vertical height of each parcel at 4.0 km (green points), 2.0 km (red points), 0.5 km (blue points) and above ground level every hour from 1500 UTC 7 August to 0600 UTC 8 August, based on the 1-h output of Exp-all. (e–h) As in (a–d), except for Zherong station. (i) Area-averaged [in the box in (a)] and vertically integrated horizontal flux divergence of water vapor [–1e^–5 g (hPa m²s)^–1] in every experiment.

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Fig. 15. (a) Equitable threat score (ETS), (b) bias score above the 15-dBZ threshold, and (c) root-mean-square error (RMSE; dBZ) of hourly simulated composite radar reflectivity against observed composite radar reflectivity in Taiwan Island and mainland China from 1800 UTC 7 August to 0000 UTC 9 August.

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Fig. 16. (a) Map of 24-h accumulated rainfall (mm) observed by the rain gauges in Taiwan Island and mainland China on 8 August. (b) Simulated track errors against the China Meteorological Administration best track every 6 h. (c, d) Hourly area-averaged rainfall in a 100-km² box near (c) Meishan and (d) Zherong (shown in Fig. 15a), observed by rain gauges and simulated by CTRL, Exp-all, Exp-dbz, and Exp-rv from 0000 UTC 8 August to 0000 UTC 9 August.

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Fig. 17. Time series of (a, f) observed and (b, g) CTRL simulated, (c, h) Exp-all simulated, (d, i) Exp-dbz simulated, and (e, j) Exp-rv simulated radar reflectivity (dBZ; color shading) and wind vectors (m s^–1; full barb is 10 m s^–1) at z = 3.0 km near (a–e) 27.25°N (Zherong) and (f–j) 23.27 °N (Meishan) from 1800 UTC 7 August to 0000 UTC 9 August.

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Table 1 Description of the experimental design

Experiment	Description
CTRL	No radar data assimilation
Exp-all	Assimilation of radial velocity and reflectivity
Exp-dbz	Assimilation of radar reflectivity only
Exp-rv	Assimilation of radial velocity only
Exp-ml	Assimilation of radar data from mainland China only
Exp-tw	Assimilation of radar data from Taiwan only
Exp-kt	Assimilation of radar data from Kenting station only

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Table 2 Simulated track errors of each numerical experiment against the best track, and the mean ETS (equitable threat score), BS (bias score) and RMSE (root-mean-square error) of composite radar reflectivity from each numerical experiment against the observation every hour from 1800 UTC 7 to 0000 UTC 9 August 2009

Experiment	Track error (km)			Mean ETS	Mean BS	Mean RMSE (dBZ)
Experiment	Max	Min	Mean	Mean ETS	Mean BS	Mean RMSE (dBZ)
CTRL	133.4	11.3	60.2	0.082	0.81	11.23
Exp-all	77.7	0.0	33.4	0.110	0.92	11.44
Exp-dbz	146.7	16.7	98.5	0.072	0.86	11.82
Exp-rv	77.8	5.8	37.9	0.095	0.78	10.05
Exp-ml	57.0	11.3	34.8	0.097	0.89	11.34
Exp-tw	79.4	11.1	44.8	0.075	0.99	11.62
Exp-kt	116.2	11.1	76.4	0.088	1.02	11.46

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Table 3 Station numbers at different rainfall thresholds against 605 observation stations from mainland China and Taiwan Island, based on the observed and simulated 24-h accumulated rainfall on 8 August 2009

Rainfall threshold (mm)	Station numbers at different rainfall thresholds
Rainfall threshold (mm)	OBS	CTRL	Exp-all	Exp-dbz	Exp-rv	Exp-ml	Exp-tw	Exp-kt
100	270	224	250	221	240	252	247	245
200	205	132	165	159	157	174	164	123
300	163	59	94	96	95	104	108	77
400	122	31	67	62	49	56	75	45
500	89	20	45	37	26	32	48	30
600	63	7	25	23	18	21	27	18
700	47	3	16	16	9	13	17	12
800	35	1	11	11	7	8	9	5
900	30	0	10	5	0	3	8	5
1000	24	0	7	1	0	2	7	4
1100	13	0	4	0	0	1	4	2
1200	10	0	2	0	0	0	1	0
1300	7	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
1400	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1500	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

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Bao, X. W., D. Wu, X. T. Lei, et al., 2017: Improving the extreme rainfall forecast of Typhoon Morakot (2009) by assimilating radar data from Taiwan Island and mainland China. J. Meteor. Res., 31(4), 747–766, doi: 10.1007/s13351-017-6007-8..

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Manuscript History

Received: 05 November 2016

Accepted: 18 December 2016

Final form: 31 July 2017

Published online: 17 August 2017

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Improving the Extreme Rainfall Forecast of Typhoon Morakot (2009) by Assimilating Radar Data from Taiwan Island and Mainland China