Adjoint Sensitivity Study on Idealized Explosive Cyclogenesis

The adjoint sensitivity related to explosive cyclogenesis in a conditionally unstable atmosphere is inves-tigated in this study. The PSU/NCAR limited-area, nonhydrostatic primitive equation numerical model MM5 and its adjoint system are employed for numerical simulation and adjoint computation, respectively. To ensure the explosive development of a baroclinic wave, the forecast model is initialized with an idealized condition including an idealized two-dimensional baroclinic jet with a balanced three-dimensional moderate-amplitude disturbance, derived from a potential vorticity inversion technique. Firstly, the validity period of the tangent linear model for this idealized baroclinic wave case is discussed, considering different initial moisture distributions and a dry condition. Secondly, the 48 h forecast surface pressure center and the vertical component of the relative vorticity of the cyclone are selected as the response functions for adjoint computation in a dry and moist environment, respectively. The preliminary results show that the validity of the tangent linear assumption for this idealized baroclinic wave case can extend to 48 h with intense moist convection, and the validity period can last even longer in the dry adjoint integration. Adjoint sensitivity analysis indicates that the rapid development of the idealized baroclinic wave is sensitive to the initial wind and temperature perturbations around the steering level in the upstream. Moreover, the moist adjoint sen-sitivity can capture a secondary high sensitivity center in the upper troposphere, which cannot be depicted in the dry adjoint run.