Multi-Sliding Time Windows Based Changing Trend of Mean Temperature and Its Association with the Global-Warming Hiatus

Based on three global annual mean surface temperature time series and three Chinese annual mean surface air temperature time series, climate change trends on multiple timescales are analyzed by using the trend estimation method of multi-sliding time windows. The results are used to discuss the so-called global-warming hiatus during 1998-2012. It is demonstrated that different beginning and end times have an obvious effect on the results of the trend estimation, and the implications are particularly large when using a short window. The global-warming hiatus during 1998-2012 is the result of viewing temperature series on short timescales; and the events similar to it, or the events with even cold tendencies, have actually occurred many times in history. Therefore, the global-warming hiatus is likely to be a periodical feature of the long-term temperature change. It mainly reflects the decadal variability of temperature, and such a phenomenon in the short term does not alter the overall warming trend in the long term.