Statistical Characteristics of Environmental Parameters for Warm Season Short-Duration Heavy Rainfall over Central and Eastern China

TIAN Fuyou; ZHENG Yongguang; ZHANG Tao; ZHANG Xiaoling; MAO Dongyan; SUN Jianhua; ZHAO Sixiong

doi:10.1007/s13351-014-4119-y

PDF (1693 KB)

Statistical Characteristics of Environmental Parameters for Warm Season Short-Duration Heavy Rainfall over Central and Eastern China

+ Author Affiliations + Find other works by these authors

Corresponding author: ZHENG Yongguang

Funds:

Supported by the Meteorological Integration and Application of Key Techniques (CMAGJ2013Z04), China Meteorological Administration Special PublicWelfare Research Fund (GYHY201406002 and GYHY201206004), and National (Key) Basic Research and Development (973) Program of China (2013CB430106).

DOI: 10.1007/s13351-014-4119-y

Abstract

Abstract

Water vapor content, instability, and convergence conditions are the key to short-duration heavy rainfall forecasting. It is necessary to understand the large-scale atmospheric environment characteristics of shortduration heavy rainfall by investigating the distribution of physical parameters for different hourly rainfall intensities. The observed hourly rainfall data in China and the NCEP final analysis (FNL) data during 1 May and 30 September from 2002 to 2009 are used. NCEP FNL data are 6-hourly, resulting in sample sizes of 1573370, 355346, and 11401 for three categories of hourly rainfall (P) of no precipitation (P 0.1 mm h-1), ordinary precipitation (0.1 P 20 mm h-1), and short-duration heavy rainfall (P 20.0 mm h-1), respectively, by adopting a temporal matching method. The results show that the total precipitable water (PWAT) is the best parameter indicating the hourly rainfall intensity. A PWAT of 28 mm is necessary for any short-duration heavy rainfall. The possibility of short-duration heavy rainfall occurrence increases with PWAT, and a PWAT of 59 mm is nearly suffcient. The specific humidity is a better indicator than relative humidity. Both 700and 850-hPa relative humidity greater than 80% could be used to determine whether or not it is going to rain, but could not be used to estimate the rainfall intensity. Temperature and potential pseudo-equivalent temperature are also reasonable indicators of short-duration heavy rainfall. Among the atmospheric instability parameters, the best lifted index (BLI) performs best on the shortduration rainfall discrimination; the next best is the K index (KI). The three rainfall categories are not well recognized by total totals (TT) or the temperature difference between 850 and 500 hPa (DT85). Threequarters of short-duration heavy rainfall occurred with BLI less than -0.9, while no short-duration heavy rainfall occurred when BLI was greater than 2.6. The minimum threshold of KI was 28.1 for short-duration heavy rainfall. The importance of dynamic conditions was well demonstrated by the 925and 850-hPa divergence. The representativeness of 925-hPa divergence is stronger than that of 850 hPa. Three-quarters of short-duration heavy rainfall occurred under a negative divergence environment. However, both the best convective potential energy (BCAPE) and vertical wind shear were unable to discriminate the hourly rainfall intensities.
- short-duration heavy rainfall,
- parameter,
- statistic characteristics,
- atmosphere environment

FullText(HTML)

References (40)

References

Arakawa, A., 2004: The cumulus parameterization problem: Past, present, and future. J. Climate, 17, 2493-2525.

Bunkers, M. J., 2002: Vertical wind shear associated with left-moving supercells. Wea. Forecasting, 17, 845-855.

Boville, B. A., 1991: Sensitivity of simulated climate to model resolution. J. Climate, 4, 469-485.

Chen Jiong, Zheng Yongguang, Zhang Xiaoling, et al., 2013: Distribution and diurnal variation of warmseason short-duration heavy rainfall in relation to the MCSs in China. Acta Meteor. Sinica, 27, 868888.

Ding Yihui, 2005: Senior Meteorology. China Meteorological Press, Beijing, 309-452. (in Chinese)

Doswell III, C. A., H. E. Brooks, and R. A. Maddeox, 1996: Flash flood forecasting: An ingredients-based methodology. Wea. Forecasting, 11, 560-580.

Fan Limiao and Yu Xiaoding, 2013: Characteristic analyses on environmental parameters in short-term severe convective weather in China. Plateau Meteor., 32, 156-165. (in Chinese)

Fankhauser, J. C., N. A. Crook, J. Tuttle, et al., 1995: Initiation of deep convection along boundary layer convergence lines in a semitropical environment. Mon. Wea. Rev., 123, 291-314.

Fritsch, J. M., and R. E. Carbone, 2004: Improving quantitative precipitation forecasts in the warm season: A USWRP research and development strategy. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 955-965.

Holloway, C. E., and J. D. Neelin, 2009: Moisture vertical structure, column water vapor, and tropical deep convection. J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 1665-1683.

Huang Gang, 2006: The assessment and difference of the interdecadal variations of climate change in northern part of China with the NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 reanalysis data. Climatic Environ. Res., 11, 310320. (in Chinese)

Humphreys, W. J., 1919: Intensity of precipitation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 47, 722.

Lei Lei, Sun Jisong, and Wei Dong, 2011: Distinguishing the category of the summer convective weather by sounding data in Beijing. Meteor. Mon., 37, 136141. (in Chinese)

Lei Lei, Sun Jisong, Wang Guorong, et al., 2012: An experimental study of the summer convective weather categorical probability forecast based on the rapid updated cycle system for the Beijing area (BJ-RUC). Acta Meteor. Sinica, 70, 752-765. (in Chinese)

Li Yaodong, Liu Jianwen, and Gao Shouting, 2004: On the progress of application for dynamic and energetic convective parameters associated with severe convective weather forecasting. Acta Meteor. Sinica, 62, 401-409. (in Chinese)

Li Zhinan and Li Tingfu, 2000: Analysis on the environmental conditions and dynamic trigger mechanism of a severe convective rainstorm in Beijing. Quart. J. Appl. Meteor., 11, 304-311. (in Chinese)

Lin, Y. L., S. Chiao, T. A. Wang, et al., 2001: Some common ingredients for heavy orographic rainfall. Wea. Forecasting, 16, 633-660.

Lu Hancheng and Yang Guoxiang, 2000: Theory and Forecasting of Mesoscale Meteorology. China Meteorological Press, Beijing, 301 pp. (in Chinese)

McBride, J. L., and W. M. Frank, 1999: Relationships between stability and monsoon convection. J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 24-36.

Miller, R. C., 1972: Notes on Analysis and Severe-storm Forecasting Procedures of the Air Force Global Weather Central. Air Weather Service (MAC), U. S. A. F., Technical Report 200 (Rev.), 183 pp.

Molinari, J., and M. Dudek, 1992: Parameterization of convective precipitation in mesoscale numerical models: A critical review. Mon. Wea. Rev., 120, 326-344.

Peppler, R. A., and P. J. Lamb, 1989: Tropospheric static stability and central North American growing season rainfall. Mon. Wea. Rev., 117, 1156-1180.

Qian Chuanhai, Zhang Jinyan, Ying Dongmei, et al., 2007: A severe convection weather of Jiangxi in April 2003. J. Appl. Meteor. Sci., 18, 460-467. (in Chinese)

Rasmussen, E. N., 2003: Refined supercell and tornado forecast parameters. Wea. Forecasting, 18, 530-535.

Rasmussen, E. N., and D. O. Blanchard, 1998: Baseline climatology of sounding-derived supercell and tornado forecast parameters. Wea. Forecasting, 13, 1148-1164.

Sun Jisong, Dai Jianhua, He Lifu, et al., 2014: Basic Theory and Technical Methods on Severe Convective Weather Forecasting. China Meteorological Press, Beijing, 282 pp. (in Chinese)

Thompson, R. L., B. T. Smith, J. S. Grams, et al., 2012: Convective modes for significant severe thunderstorms in the contiguous United States. Part II: Supercell and QLCS tornado environments. Wea. Forecasting, 27, 1136-1154.

Tian Fuyou, Zheng Yongguang, Mao Dongyan, et al., 2014: Study on probability distribution of warm season hourly rainfall with distribution. Meteor. Mon., 40, 787-795. (in Chinese)

Wang Xiuming, Yu Xiaoding, and Zhu He, 2012: The applicability of NCEP reanalysis data to severe convection environment analysis. J. Appl. Meteor. Sci., 23, 139-146. (in Chinese)

Watson, A. I., and D. O. Blanchard, 1984: The relationship between total area divergence and convective precipitation in South Florida. Mon. Wea. Rev., 112, 673-685.

Weisman, M. L., and J. B. Klemp, 1982: The dependence of numerically simulated convective storms on vertical wind shear and buoyancy. Mon. Wea. Rev., 110, 504-520.

Wetzel, S. W., and J. E. Martin, 2001: An operational ingredients-based methodology for forecasting midlatitude winter season precipitation. Wea. Forecasting, 16, 156-167.

Wilson, J. W., N. A. Crook, C. K. Mueller, et al., 1998: Nowcasting thunderstorms: A status report. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79, 2079-2099.

Yin Dongping, Wu Haiying, Zhang Bei, et al., 2010: Analysis on a severe convective weather triggered sea breeze front. Plateau Meteor., 29, 1261-1269. (in Chinese)

Yu, X., and T. -Y. Lee, 2010: Role of convective parameterization in simulations of a convection band at grey-zone resolutions. Tellus A, 62, 617-632.

Zhang Jiacheng and Lin Zhiguang, 1985: Climate of China. Science and Technology Press of Shanghai, Shanghai, 46-127. (in Chinese)

Zhang Tao, Lan Yu, Mao Dongyan, et al., 2013: Advances of mesoscale convective weather analysis in NMC. I: Convective weather environment analysis and supporting techniques. Meteor. Mon., 39, 894900. (in Chinese)

Zhang Xiaoling, Chen Yun, and Zhang Tao, 2012: Mesoscale convective weather analysis and severe convective weather forecasting. Acta Meteor. Sinica, 70, 642-654. (in Chinese)

Zhao Ruixia and Wu Guoxiong, 2007: Water budget for the Yangtze River basin and evaluation of ECMWF and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. Acta Meteor. Sinica, 65, 416-427. (in Chinese)

Zheng Linlin, Sun Jianhua, Zhang Xiaoling, et al., 2013: Organizational modes of mesoscale convective systems over central East China. Wea. Forecasting, 28, 1081-1098.

Relative Articles

Supplements (0)

Cited By

Cited by

Periodical cited type(20)

1.	Qian Wei, Jianhua Sun, Shenming Fu, et al. Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Rainfall over Different Terrain Features in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Basin during the Warm Seasons of 2016–20. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2024. DOI:10.1007/s00376-023-3034-5
2.	Fuyou Tian, Xiaoling Zhang, Jianhua Sun, et al. Climatology and pre-convection environmental conditions of dry and wet thunderstorm high winds over eastern China. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2024, 155(2): 1493. DOI:10.1007/s00704-023-04704-w
3.	Xinchao Liu, Yongren Chen, Jie Guo, et al. Brightness Temperature Characteristics of Short-Duration Heavy Rainfall in the Chengdu–Chongqing Railway Region in China. Atmosphere, 2023, 14(5): 896. DOI:10.3390/atmos14050896
4.	Anand Shankar, Bikash Chandra Sahana. Efficient prediction of runway visual range by using a hybrid CNN-LSTM network architecture for aviation services. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2023. DOI:10.1007/s00704-023-04751-3
5.	Nan Xing, Yingxin Zhang, Sang Li, et al. The features and probability forecasting of short–duration heavy rainfall in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region caused by North China cold vortices. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 2023, 10 DOI:10.3389/fenvs.2022.1101602
6.	Fuyou Tian, Xiaoling Zhang, Kun Xia, et al. Probability Forecasting of Short-Term Short-Duration Heavy Rainfall Combining Ingredients-Based Methodology and Fuzzy Logic Approach. Atmosphere, 2022, 13(7): 1074. DOI:10.3390/atmos13071074
7.	Yinglian Guo, Min Zhong, Xuan Chen, et al. A Thunderstorm Gale Forecast Method Based on the Objective Classification and Continuous Probability. Atmosphere, 2022, 13(8): 1308. DOI:10.3390/atmos13081308
8.	Chunlei Gu, Anning Huang, Yaocun Zhang, et al. The Wet Bias of RegCM4 Over Tibet Plateau in Summer Reduced by Adopting the 3D Sub‐Grid Terrain Solar Radiative Effect Parameterization Scheme. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2022, 127(21) DOI:10.1029/2022JD037434
9.	Zhaoming Liang, Zhiqun Hu. A Bayes‐Based Approach Against Sample Imbalance to Improving the Potential Forecasts of Gale. Geophysical Research Letters, 2022, 49(18) DOI:10.1029/2022GL100019
10.	Ruoyun Ma, Jianhua Sun, Xinlin Yang. An eight-year climatology of the warm-season severe thunderstorm environments over North China. Atmospheric Research, 2021, 254: 105519. DOI:10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105519
11.	Bo Yang, Yuanxiang Wang, Sulan Nan. Joint influence of anomalous medium‐ and small‐scale circulations on short‐term heavy rainfall events over Beijing. International Journal of Climatology, 2021, 41(2): 1002. DOI:10.1002/joc.6720
12.	Shui‐xin Zhong, Fu‐you Tian. The heavy rainfall during the warm season over the Pearl River Delta region: Movements and early signals. Atmospheric Science Letters, 2021, 22(2) DOI:10.1002/asl.1012
13.	Tao Chen, Da-Lin Zhang. A 7-Year Climatology of Warm-Sector Heavy Rainfall over South China during the Pre-Summer Months. Atmosphere, 2021, 12(7): 914. DOI:10.3390/atmos12070914
14.	Xiaoding Yu, Yongguang Zheng. Advances in Severe Convection Research and Operation in China. Journal of Meteorological Research, 2020, 34(2): 189. DOI:10.1007/s13351-020-9875-2
15.	Ruoyun Ma, Shuanglei Feng, Shuanglong Jin, et al. Statistical Characteristics and Environmental Conditions of the Warm-Season Severe Convective Events over North China. Atmosphere, 2020, 12(1): 52. DOI:10.3390/atmos12010052
16.	Kong Feng. Study on temporal and spatial differences of multi-attribute characteristics of torrential rain in different months in China. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 2020, 446(3): 032038. DOI:10.1088/1755-1315/446/3/032038
17.	Feng Kong. Global rainstorm multi-attribute variation and its multiscale correlation with ENSO. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 2020, 526(1): 012011. DOI:10.1088/1755-1315/526/1/012011
18.	Yongguang Zheng, Yanduo Gong, Jiong Chen, et al. Warm-Season Diurnal Variations of Total, Stratiform, Convective, and Extreme Hourly Precipitation over Central and Eastern China. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2019, 36(2): 143. DOI:10.1007/s00376-018-7307-3
19.	Kanghui Zhou, Yongguang Zheng, Bo Li, et al. Forecasting Different Types of Convective Weather: A Deep Learning Approach. Journal of Meteorological Research, 2019, 33(5): 797. DOI:10.1007/s13351-019-8162-6
20.	俊玲姜. The Application of Huadong Regional Model on Weather Warning of 2016-2017 Flood Season. Climate Change Research Letters, 2018, 07(06): 490. DOI:10.12677/CCRL.2018.76054

Other cited types(0)

Search

Citation

TIAN Fuyou, ZHENG Yongguang, ZHANG Tao, ZHANG Xiaoling, MAO Dongyan, SUN Jianhua, ZHAO Sixiong. 2015: Statistical Characteristics of Environmental Parameters for Warm Season Short-Duration Heavy Rainfall over Central and Eastern China. Journal of Meteorological Research, 29(3): 370-384. DOI: 10.1007/s13351-014-4119-y

Citation:

Export: BibTex EndNote

Article Metrics

Article views: 825
PDF downloads: 633 Cited by: 20

Manuscript History

Received: 22 August 2014

Revised: 25 February 2015

Final form: 27 June 2015

Published online: 01 July 2015

	Lei YANG, Yongguang ZHENG. 2024: The Short-Duration Heavy Rainfall in Different Quadrants of Northeast China Cold Vortices. Journal of Meteorological Research, 38(2): 321-338. DOI: 10.1007/s13351-024-3055-8
	Shouguo DING, Fuzhong WENG. 2019: Influences of Physical Processes and Parameters on Simulations of TOA Radiance at UV Wavelengths: Implications for Satellite UV Instrument Validation. Journal of Meteorological Research, 33(2): 264-275. DOI: 10.1007/s13351-019-8137-7
	Dongdong LI, Yongli HE, Jianping HUANG, Lu BI, Lei DING. 2018: Multiple Equilibria in a Land–Atmosphere Coupled System. Journal of Meteorological Research, 32(6): 950-973. DOI: 10.1007/s13351-018-8012-y
	Yi-Bing XIE, Shou-Jun CHEN, I-Liang CHANG, Yin-Liang HUANG. 2018: A Preliminarily Statistic and Synoptic Study about the Basic Currents over Southeastern Asia and the Initiation of Typhoons ^* ^# ^&. Journal of Meteorological Research, 32(4): 661-669. DOI: 10.1007/s13351-018-8888-6
	Xiantong LIU, Qilin WAN, Hong WANG, Hui XIAO, Yu ZHANG, Tengfei ZHENG, Lu FENG. 2018: Raindrop Size Distribution Parameters Retrieved from Guangzhou S-band Polarimetric Radar Observations. Journal of Meteorological Research, 32(4): 571-583. DOI: 10.1007/s13351-018-7152-4
	Xiangrui LI, Ke FAN, Entao YU. 2018: A Heavy Rainfall Event in Autumn over Beijing—Atmospheric Circulation Background and Hindcast Simulation Using WRF. Journal of Meteorological Research, 32(3): 503-515. DOI: 10.1007/s13351-018-7168-9
	Yu SHU, Jisong SUN, Yinong PAN. 2017: Characteristics of Mesoscale Vortices over China in 2015. Journal of Meteorological Research, 31(6): 1149-1160. DOI: 10.1007/s13351-017-7639-4
	Rui WANG, Yunfei FU. 2017: Structural Characteristics of Atmospheric Temperature and Humidity inside Clouds of Convective and Stratiform Precipitation in the Rainy Season over East Asia. Journal of Meteorological Research, 31(5): 890-905. DOI: 10.1007/s13351-017-7038-x
	Zhenhua LI, Alan H. MANSON, Yanping LI, Chris MEEK. 2017: Circulation Characteristics of Persistent Cold Spells in Central–Eastern North America. Journal of Meteorological Research, 31(1): 250-260. DOI: 10.1007/s13351-017-6146-y
	CHEN Jiong, ZHENG Yongguang, ZHANG Xiaoling, ZHU Peijun. 2013: Distribution and Diurnal Variation of Warm-Season Short-Duration Heavy Rainfall in Relation to the MCSs in China. Journal of Meteorological Research, 27(6): 868-888. DOI: 10.1007/s13351-013-0605-x

Statistical Characteristics of Environmental Parameters for Warm Season Short-Duration Heavy Rainfall over Central and Eastern China