Track of Super Typhoon Haiyan Predicted by a Typhoon Model for the South China Sea

CHEN Zitong; ZHANG Chengzhong; HUANG Yanyan; FENG Yerong; ZHONG Shuixin; DAI Guangfeng; XU Daosheng; YANG Zhaoli

doi:10.1007/s13351-014-3269-2

Track of Super Typhoon Haiyan Predicted by a Typhoon Model for the South China Sea

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Supported by the China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund (GYHY201206010) and Guangdong Science and Technology Research Plan (2012A061400012 and 2011A032100006).

DOI: 10.1007/s13351-014-3269-2

Abstract

Abstract

Super Typhoon Haiyan was the most notable typhoon in 2013. In this study, results from the operational prediction of Haiyan by a tropical regional typhoon model for the South China Sea are analyzed. It is shown that the model has successfully reproduced Haiyan's rapid passage through the Philippines and its northward deflection after its second landfall in Vietnam. However, the predicted intensity of Haiyan is weaker than the observed. An analysis of higher-resolution model simulations indicates that the storm is characterized by an upper-level warm core during its mature stage and a deep layer of easterly flow. Sensitivity experiments are conducted to study the impact of certain physical processes such as the interaction between stratus and cumulus clouds on the improvement of the typhoon intensity forecast. It is found that appropriate boundary layer and cumulus convective parameterizations, and orographic gravity-wave parameterization, as well as improved initial conditions and increased horizontal grid resolution, all help to improve the intensity forecast of Haiyan.
- Super Typhoon Haiyan,
- typhoon track,
- typhoon intensity,
- numerical weather prediction

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1.	Yanyan Huang, Yanxia Zhang, Chengzhong Zhang, et al. An assessment of model capability on rapid intensification prediction of tropical cyclones in the South China Sea. Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans, 2024, 106: 101431. DOI:10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2023.101431
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6.	Rong Zhang, Wenjuan Zhang, Yijun Zhang, et al. Application of Lightning Data Assimilation to Numerical Forecast of Super Typhoon Haiyan (2013). Journal of Meteorological Research, 2020, 34(5): 1052. DOI:10.1007/s13351-020-9145-3
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CHEN Zitong, ZHANG Chengzhong, HUANG Yanyan, FENG Yerong, ZHONG Shuixin, DAI Guangfeng, XU Daosheng, YANG Zhaoli. 2014: Track of Super Typhoon Haiyan Predicted by a Typhoon Model for the South China Sea. Journal of Meteorological Research, 28(4): 510-523. DOI: 10.1007/s13351-014-3269-2

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Manuscript History

Received: 01 March 2014

Revised: 27 May 2014

Final form: 29 August 2014

Published online: 03 June 2025

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Track of Super Typhoon Haiyan Predicted by a Typhoon Model for the South China Sea

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