National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081; Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Nanjing University of Information Science &Technology,Nanjing 210044; School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Sun Yat-Sen University,Guangzhou 510275; National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081; Inner Mongolia Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration,Hohhot 010051
Supported by the National (Key) Basic Research and Development (973) Program of China (2010CB428606 and 2014CB950900), China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund (GYHY201206017), National Science and Technology Support Program of China (2009BAC51B05), and LASW State Key Laboratory Special Fund (2013LASW-A05).
Daily output from the hindcasts by the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) is analyzed to understand CFSv2's skill in forecasting wintertime atmospheric blocking in the Northern Hemisphere. Prediction skills of sector blocking, sector-blocking episodes, and blocking onset/decay are assessed with a focus on the Euro-Atlantic sector (20W-45E) and the Pacific sector (160E-135W). Features of associated circulation and climate patterns are also examined.
The CFSv2 well captures the observed features of longitudinal distribution of blocking activity, but underestimates blocking frequency and intensity and shows a decreasing trend in blocking frequency with increasing forecast lead time. Within 14-day lead time, the Euro-Atlantic sector blocking receives a higher skill than the Pacific sector blocking. Skillful forecast (taking the hit rate of 50% as a criterion) can be obtained up to 9 days in the Euro-Atlantic sector, which is slightly longer than that in the Pacific sector (7 days). The forecast skill of sector-blocking episodes is slightly lower than that of sector blocking in both sectors, and it is slightly higher in the Euro-Atlantic sector than in the Pacific sector. Compared to block onset, the skill for block decay is lower in the Euro-Atlantic sector, slightly higher in the Pacific sector during the early three days but lower after three days in lead time. In both the Euro-Atlantic and the Pacific sectors, a local dipole pattern in 500-hPa geopotential height associated with blocking is well presented in the CFSv2 prediction, but the wave-train like pattern that is far away from the blocking sector can only maintain in the forecast of relative short lead time. The CFSv2 well reproduces the observed characteristics of local temperature and precipitation anomalies associated with blocking.
Li-Huan Hsu, Dan-Rong Chen, Chou-Chun Chiang, et al. Simulations of the East Asian Winter Monsoon on Subseasonal to Seasonal Time Scales Using the Model for Prediction Across Scales. Atmosphere, 2021, 12(7): 865.
DOI:10.3390/atmos12070865
2.
Gennady Platov, Vladimir Krupchatnikov, Viacheslav Gradov, et al. Analysis of the Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Circulation Response to Arctic Ice Reduction Based on Simulation Results. Geosciences, 2021, 11(9): 373.
DOI:10.3390/geosciences11090373
3.
Alexandre M. Ramos, Pedro M. Sousa, Emanuel Dutra, et al. Predictive skill for atmospheric rivers in the western Iberian Peninsula. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2020, 20(3): 877.
DOI:10.5194/nhess-20-877-2020
4.
Dong Chen, Shaobo Qiao, Shankai Tang, et al. Predictability of the Strong Ural blocking Event in January 2012 in the Subseasonal to Seasonal Models of Europe and Canada. Atmosphere, 2020, 11(5): 538.
DOI:10.3390/atmos11050538
5.
Bian He, Ping Liu, Yuejian Zhu, et al. Prediction and predictability of Northern Hemisphere persistent maxima of 500-hPa geopotential height eddies in the GEFS. Climate Dynamics, 2019, 52(7-8): 3773.
DOI:10.1007/s00382-018-4347-4
6.
G Stankūnavičius, D Basharin, R Skorupskas, et al. Euro-Atlantic blocking events and their impact on surface air temperature and precipitation over the European region in the 20th century. Climate Research, 2017, 71(3): 203.
DOI:10.3354/cr01438
7.
Song Yang, Renguang Wu, Maoqiu Jian, et al. Climate Change in Southeast Asia and Surrounding Areas. Springer Climate,
DOI:10.1007/978-981-15-8225-7_8
Other cited types(0)
Search
Citation
JIA Xiaolong, YANG Song, SONG Wenling, HE Bin. 2014: Prediction of Wintertime Northern Hemisphere Blocking by the NCEP Climate Forecast System. Journal of Meteorological Research, 28(1): 76-90. DOI: 10.1007/s13351-014-3085-8
JIA Xiaolong, YANG Song, SONG Wenling, HE Bin. 2014: Prediction of Wintertime Northern Hemisphere Blocking by the NCEP Climate Forecast System. Journal of Meteorological Research, 28(1): 76-90. DOI: 10.1007/s13351-014-3085-8
JIA Xiaolong, YANG Song, SONG Wenling, HE Bin. 2014: Prediction of Wintertime Northern Hemisphere Blocking by the NCEP Climate Forecast System. Journal of Meteorological Research, 28(1): 76-90. DOI: 10.1007/s13351-014-3085-8
Citation:
JIA Xiaolong, YANG Song, SONG Wenling, HE Bin. 2014: Prediction of Wintertime Northern Hemisphere Blocking by the NCEP Climate Forecast System. Journal of Meteorological Research, 28(1): 76-90. DOI: 10.1007/s13351-014-3085-8
DownLoad: