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Abstract
Daily 850-hPa meridional wind fields in East Asia from March to September 2002 were used to establish
a model of the principal oscillation pattern (POP). This model was then used to conduct independent
extended-range forecasts of the principal temporal and spatial variations in the low-frequency meridional
wind field on a time scale of 20–30 days. These variations affect the occurrence of heavy precipitation events
in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (LYRV). The results of 135 forecast experiments during the
summer half year show that the predicted and observed anomalies are strongly correlated at a lead time of
20 days (mean correlation greater than 0.50). This strong correlation indicates that the model is capable
of accurately forecasting the low-frequency variations in meridional wind that corresponded to the 3 heavy
precipitation events in the LYRV during the summer of 2002. Further forecast experiments based on data
from multiple years with significant 20–30-day oscillations show that these prediction modes are effective
tools for forecasting the space-time evolution of the low-frequency circulation. These findings offer potential
for improving the accuracy of forecasts of heavy precipitation over the LYRV at lead times of 3–4 weeks.
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Citation
YANG Qiuming, LI Yi, SONG Juan, HUANG Shicheng. 2012: Extended-Range Forecasts of the Principal 20–30-Day Oscillation of the Circulation over East Asia During the Summer of 2002. Journal of Meteorological Research, 26(5): 554-565. DOI: 10.1007/s13351-012-0502-8
YANG Qiuming, LI Yi, SONG Juan, HUANG Shicheng. 2012: Extended-Range Forecasts of the Principal 20–30-Day Oscillation of the Circulation over East Asia During the Summer of 2002. Journal of Meteorological Research, 26(5): 554-565. DOI: 10.1007/s13351-012-0502-8
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YANG Qiuming, LI Yi, SONG Juan, HUANG Shicheng. 2012: Extended-Range Forecasts of the Principal 20–30-Day Oscillation of the Circulation over East Asia During the Summer of 2002. Journal of Meteorological Research, 26(5): 554-565. DOI: 10.1007/s13351-012-0502-8
YANG Qiuming, LI Yi, SONG Juan, HUANG Shicheng. 2012: Extended-Range Forecasts of the Principal 20–30-Day Oscillation of the Circulation over East Asia During the Summer of 2002. Journal of Meteorological Research, 26(5): 554-565. DOI: 10.1007/s13351-012-0502-8
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