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Abstract
Changes in precipitation minus evaporation (P–E) are analyzed to investigate the possible impacts of
climate change on water resource conditions in China. Simulations of SRES A1B and 20C3M scenarios
from the WCRP CMIP3 GCMs are employed in the study. Time slice analysis shows that there would be
more annual mean P–E across China in 2040–2055 and 2080–2099, compared to 1980–1999, with the largest
percentage change over Northwest China and the Bohai Rim area. Precipitation and evaporation would
also increase over entire China during these two periods. Annual mean P–E, precipitation, and evaporation
averaged over the whole China and its eight sub-areas all yield generally upward trends during the 21st
century. This indicates that on annual mean scale, the global warming related precipitation dominates the
hydroclimate conditions in China. On seasonal mean scale, although precipitation is projected to increase
over China, P–E exhibits both decreasing and increasing trends over certain regions of China. This suggests
that the variation of global warming related evaporation dominates hydroclimate conditions over some parts
of China, especially in northern China. Therefore, in hydroclimate condition projections, considering both
evaporation and precipitation changes should be more reasonable than considering only precipitation.
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Citation
ZHANG Ying, SUN Jianqi. 2012: Model Projections of Precipitation Minus Evaporation in China. Journal of Meteorological Research, 26(3): 376-388. DOI: 10.1007/s13351-012-0309-7
ZHANG Ying, SUN Jianqi. 2012: Model Projections of Precipitation Minus Evaporation in China. Journal of Meteorological Research, 26(3): 376-388. DOI: 10.1007/s13351-012-0309-7
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ZHANG Ying, SUN Jianqi. 2012: Model Projections of Precipitation Minus Evaporation in China. Journal of Meteorological Research, 26(3): 376-388. DOI: 10.1007/s13351-012-0309-7
ZHANG Ying, SUN Jianqi. 2012: Model Projections of Precipitation Minus Evaporation in China. Journal of Meteorological Research, 26(3): 376-388. DOI: 10.1007/s13351-012-0309-7
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