Projections of Annual Mean Air Temperature and Precipitation over the Globe and in China During the 21st Century bythe BCC Climate System Model BCC_CSM1.0
Division of Climate System Modeling & Laboratory for Climate Studies,National Climate Center,
China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081; Division of Climate System Modeling & Laboratory for Climate Studies,National Climate Center,
China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081; Division of Climate System Modeling & Laboratory for Climate Studies,National Climate Center,
China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081; Division of Climate System Modeling & Laboratory for Climate Studies,National Climate Center,
China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081; Division of Climate System Modeling & Laboratory for Climate Studies,National Climate Center,
China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081
Supported by the National Science and Technology Support Program of China (2007BAC03A01 and 2007BAC29B03), NationalBasic Research and Development (973) Program of China (2010CB951902), and China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund (GYHY200806006).
Evaluating the projection capability of climate models is an important task in climate model development
and climate change studies. The projection capability of the Beijing Climate Center (BCC) Climate System
Model BCC_CSM1.0 is analyzed in this study. We focus on evaluating the projected annual mean air
temperature and precipitation during the 21st century under three emission scenarios (Special Report on
Emission Scenarios (SRES) B1, A1B, and A2) of the BCC_CSM1.0 model, along with comparisons with
22 CMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3) climate models. Air temperature averaged
both globally and within China is projected to increase continuously throughout the 21st century, while
precipitation increases intermittently under each of the three emission scenarios, with some specific temporal
and spatial characteristics. The changes in globally-averaged and China-averaged air temperature and
precipitation simulated by the BCC_CSM1.0 model are within the range of CMIP3 model results. On
average, the changes of precipitation and temperature are more pronounced over China than over the globe,
which is also in agreement with the CMIP3 models. The projection capability of the BCC_CSM1.0 model is
comparable to that of other climate system models. Furthermore, the results reveal that the climate change
response to greenhouse gas emissions is stronger over China than in the global mean, which implies that
China may be particularly sensitive to climate change in the 21st century.
ZHANG Li, WU Tongwen, XIN Xiaoge, DONG Min, WANG Zaizhi. 2012: Projections of Annual Mean Air Temperature and Precipitation over the Globe and in China During the 21st Century bythe BCC Climate System Model BCC_CSM1.0. Journal of Meteorological Research, 26(3): 362-375. DOI: 10.1007/s13351-012-0308-8
ZHANG Li, WU Tongwen, XIN Xiaoge, DONG Min, WANG Zaizhi. 2012: Projections of Annual Mean Air Temperature and Precipitation over the Globe and in China During the 21st Century bythe BCC Climate System Model BCC_CSM1.0. Journal of Meteorological Research, 26(3): 362-375. DOI: 10.1007/s13351-012-0308-8
ZHANG Li, WU Tongwen, XIN Xiaoge, DONG Min, WANG Zaizhi. 2012: Projections of Annual Mean Air Temperature and Precipitation over the Globe and in China During the 21st Century bythe BCC Climate System Model BCC_CSM1.0. Journal of Meteorological Research, 26(3): 362-375. DOI: 10.1007/s13351-012-0308-8
Citation:
ZHANG Li, WU Tongwen, XIN Xiaoge, DONG Min, WANG Zaizhi. 2012: Projections of Annual Mean Air Temperature and Precipitation over the Globe and in China During the 21st Century bythe BCC Climate System Model BCC_CSM1.0. Journal of Meteorological Research, 26(3): 362-375. DOI: 10.1007/s13351-012-0308-8