Projections of Annual Mean Air Temperature and Precipitation over the Globe and in China During the 21st Century bythe BCC Climate System Model BCC_CSM1.0

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  • Funds:

    Supported by the National Science and Technology Support Program of China (2007BAC03A01 and 2007BAC29B03), NationalBasic Research and Development (973) Program of China (2010CB951902), and China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund (GYHY200806006).

  • doi: 10.1007/s13351-012-0308-8

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  • Evaluating the projection capability of climate models is an important task in climate model development and climate change studies. The projection capability of the Beijing Climate Center (BCC) Climate System Model BCC_CSM1.0 is analyzed in this study. We focus on evaluating the projected annual mean air temperature and precipitation during the 21st century under three emission scenarios (Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) B1, A1B, and A2) of the BCC_CSM1.0 model, along with comparisons with 22 CMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3) climate models. Air temperature averaged both globally and within China is projected to increase continuously throughout the 21st century, while precipitation increases intermittently under each of the three emission scenarios, with some specific temporal and spatial characteristics. The changes in globally-averaged and China-averaged air temperature and precipitation simulated by the BCC_CSM1.0 model are within the range of CMIP3 model results. On average, the changes of precipitation and temperature are more pronounced over China than over the globe, which is also in agreement with the CMIP3 models. The projection capability of the BCC_CSM1.0 model is comparable to that of other climate system models. Furthermore, the results reveal that the climate change response to greenhouse gas emissions is stronger over China than in the global mean, which implies that China may be particularly sensitive to climate change in the 21st century.
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    沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

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Projections of Annual Mean Air Temperature and Precipitation over the Globe and in China During the 21st Century bythe BCC Climate System Model BCC_CSM1.0

  • 1. Division of Climate System Modeling & Laboratory for Climate Studies,National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081;
    Division of Climate System Modeling & Laboratory for Climate Studies,National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081;
    Division of Climate System Modeling & Laboratory for Climate Studies,National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081;
    Division of Climate System Modeling & Laboratory for Climate Studies,National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081;
    Division of Climate System Modeling & Laboratory for Climate Studies,National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081
Funds: Supported by the National Science and Technology Support Program of China (2007BAC03A01 and 2007BAC29B03), NationalBasic Research and Development (973) Program of China (2010CB951902), and China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund (GYHY200806006).

Abstract: Evaluating the projection capability of climate models is an important task in climate model development and climate change studies. The projection capability of the Beijing Climate Center (BCC) Climate System Model BCC_CSM1.0 is analyzed in this study. We focus on evaluating the projected annual mean air temperature and precipitation during the 21st century under three emission scenarios (Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) B1, A1B, and A2) of the BCC_CSM1.0 model, along with comparisons with 22 CMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3) climate models. Air temperature averaged both globally and within China is projected to increase continuously throughout the 21st century, while precipitation increases intermittently under each of the three emission scenarios, with some specific temporal and spatial characteristics. The changes in globally-averaged and China-averaged air temperature and precipitation simulated by the BCC_CSM1.0 model are within the range of CMIP3 model results. On average, the changes of precipitation and temperature are more pronounced over China than over the globe, which is also in agreement with the CMIP3 models. The projection capability of the BCC_CSM1.0 model is comparable to that of other climate system models. Furthermore, the results reveal that the climate change response to greenhouse gas emissions is stronger over China than in the global mean, which implies that China may be particularly sensitive to climate change in the 21st century.

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