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Abstract
Early and effective flood warning is essential for reducing loss of life and economic damage. Three global
ensemble weather prediction systems of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), the European
Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and the US National Centers for Environmental
Prediction (NCEP) in THORPEX (The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment) Interactive
Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) archive are used in this research to drive the Global/Regional
Assimilation and PrEdiction System (GRAPES) to produce 6-h lead time forecasts. The output (precipitation,
air temperature, humidity, and pressure) in turn drives a hydrological model XXT (the first X stands
for Xinanjiang, the second X stands for hybrid, and T stands for TOPMODEL), the hybrid model that
combines the TOPMODEL (a topography based hydrological model) and the Xinanjiang model, for a case
study of a flood event that lasted from 18 to 20 July 2007 in the Linyi watershed. The results show that
rainfall forecasts by GRAPES using TIGGE data from the three forecast centers all underestimate heavy
rainfall rates; the rainfall forecast by GRAPES using the data from the NCEP is the closest to the observation
while that from the CMA performs the worst. Moreover, the ensemble is not better than individual
members for rainfall forecasts. In contrast to corresponding rainfall forecasts, runoff forecasts are much
better for all three forecast centers, especially for the NCEP. The results suggest that early flood warning
by the GRAPES/XXT model based on TIGGE data is feasible and this provides a new approach to raise
preparedness and thus to reduce the socio-economic impact of floods.
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Citation
XU Jingwen, ZHANG Wanchang, ZHENG Ziyan, JIAO Meiyan, CHEN Jing. 2012: Early Flood Warning for Linyi Watershed by the GRAPES/XXT Model Using TIGGE Data. Journal of Meteorological Research, 26(1): 103-111. DOI: 10.1007/s13351-012-0110-7
XU Jingwen, ZHANG Wanchang, ZHENG Ziyan, JIAO Meiyan, CHEN Jing. 2012: Early Flood Warning for Linyi Watershed by the GRAPES/XXT Model Using TIGGE Data. Journal of Meteorological Research, 26(1): 103-111. DOI: 10.1007/s13351-012-0110-7
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XU Jingwen, ZHANG Wanchang, ZHENG Ziyan, JIAO Meiyan, CHEN Jing. 2012: Early Flood Warning for Linyi Watershed by the GRAPES/XXT Model Using TIGGE Data. Journal of Meteorological Research, 26(1): 103-111. DOI: 10.1007/s13351-012-0110-7
XU Jingwen, ZHANG Wanchang, ZHENG Ziyan, JIAO Meiyan, CHEN Jing. 2012: Early Flood Warning for Linyi Watershed by the GRAPES/XXT Model Using TIGGE Data. Journal of Meteorological Research, 26(1): 103-111. DOI: 10.1007/s13351-012-0110-7
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