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Abstract
Based on the precipitation and temperature data obtained from THORPEX (The Observing System Research
and Predictability Experiment) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE)–China Meteorological
Administration (CMA) archiving center and the raingauge data, the three-layer variable infiltration capacity
(VIC-3L) land surface model was employed to carry out probabilistic hydrological forecast experiments over
the upper Huaihe River catchment from 20 July to 3 August 2008. The results show that the performance of
the ensemble probabilistic prediction from each ensemble prediction system (EPS) is better than that of the
deterministic prediction. Especially, the 72-h prediction has been improved obviously. The ensemble spread
goes widely with increasing lead time and more observed discharge is bracketed in the 5th–99th quantile.
The accuracy of river discharge prediction driven by the European Centre (EC)-EPS is higher than that
driven by the CMA-EPS and the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-EPS, and
the grand-ensemble prediction is the best for hydrological prediction using the VIC model. With regard to
Wangjiaba station, all predictions made with a single EPS are close to the observation between the 25th
and 75th quantile. The onset of the flood ascending and the river discharge thresholds are predicted well,
and so is the second rising limb. Nevertheless, the flood recession is not well predicted.
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Citation
ZHAO Linna, QI Dan, TIAN Fuyou, WU Hao, DI Jingyue, WANG Zhi, LI Aihua. 2012: Probabilistic Flood Prediction in the Upper Huaihe Catchment Using TIGGE Data. Journal of Meteorological Research, 26(1): 62-71. DOI: 10.1007/s13351-012-0106-3
ZHAO Linna, QI Dan, TIAN Fuyou, WU Hao, DI Jingyue, WANG Zhi, LI Aihua. 2012: Probabilistic Flood Prediction in the Upper Huaihe Catchment Using TIGGE Data. Journal of Meteorological Research, 26(1): 62-71. DOI: 10.1007/s13351-012-0106-3
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ZHAO Linna, QI Dan, TIAN Fuyou, WU Hao, DI Jingyue, WANG Zhi, LI Aihua. 2012: Probabilistic Flood Prediction in the Upper Huaihe Catchment Using TIGGE Data. Journal of Meteorological Research, 26(1): 62-71. DOI: 10.1007/s13351-012-0106-3
ZHAO Linna, QI Dan, TIAN Fuyou, WU Hao, DI Jingyue, WANG Zhi, LI Aihua. 2012: Probabilistic Flood Prediction in the Upper Huaihe Catchment Using TIGGE Data. Journal of Meteorological Research, 26(1): 62-71. DOI: 10.1007/s13351-012-0106-3
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