Formation of an Interactive User-Oriented Forecasting System: Experience from Hydrological Application in Linyi, Eastern China

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  • Funds:

    Supported by the China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund (GYHY200706001 and GYHY200906007)

  • doi: 10.1007/s13351-012-0102-7

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  • Having provided an overview of the ideas of developing user-oriented interactive forecast system (UIFS) emerging in recent years, the authors proposed an idealized framework of the new-generation meteorological system, which includes the initial user-end module for configuring the forecast target, the physical predictive and downscaling components, and an incessant assessing module in association with decision-making at the user-end. A case study was carried out with a focus on applying the TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble; THORPEX stands for The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment) precipitation forecasts for the hydrological users in Linyi, a region richest in rivers and reservoirs in eastern China. The preliminary results exhibited great potential of improvement in applications of weather forecasts by combining the user-end information. Although the TIGGE results provided by existing national/ international operating models were independent from the user-end, the case study enlightened ways of establishing an iteratively self-improving UIFS involving user-orientation throughout the forecast process.
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    沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

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Formation of an Interactive User-Oriented Forecasting System: Experience from Hydrological Application in Linyi, Eastern China

  • 1. TEA,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;
    Research Center for Strategic Development,China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Beijing 100081,China;
    China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China;
    National Meteorological Center,CMA,Beijing 100081,China;
    Consortium for Capacity Building,University of Colorado,Colorado 80309,USA;
    National Meteorological Center,CMA,Beijing 100081,China Public Meteorological Center,CMA,Beijing 100081,China;
    TEA,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China
Funds: Supported by the China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund (GYHY200706001 and GYHY200906007)

Abstract: Having provided an overview of the ideas of developing user-oriented interactive forecast system (UIFS) emerging in recent years, the authors proposed an idealized framework of the new-generation meteorological system, which includes the initial user-end module for configuring the forecast target, the physical predictive and downscaling components, and an incessant assessing module in association with decision-making at the user-end. A case study was carried out with a focus on applying the TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble; THORPEX stands for The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment) precipitation forecasts for the hydrological users in Linyi, a region richest in rivers and reservoirs in eastern China. The preliminary results exhibited great potential of improvement in applications of weather forecasts by combining the user-end information. Although the TIGGE results provided by existing national/ international operating models were independent from the user-end, the case study enlightened ways of establishing an iteratively self-improving UIFS involving user-orientation throughout the forecast process.

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