Formation of an Interactive User-Oriented Forecasting System: Experience from Hydrological Application in Linyi, Eastern China

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Supported by the China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund (GYHY200706001 and GYHY200906007)

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  • Having provided an overview of the ideas of developing user-oriented interactive forecast system (UIFS) emerging in recent years, the authors proposed an idealized framework of the new-generation meteorological system, which includes the initial user-end module for configuring the forecast target, the physical predictive and downscaling components, and an incessant assessing module in association with decision-making at the user-end. A case study was carried out with a focus on applying the TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble; THORPEX stands for The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment) precipitation forecasts for the hydrological users in Linyi, a region richest in rivers and reservoirs in eastern China. The preliminary results exhibited great potential of improvement in applications of weather forecasts by combining the user-end information. Although the TIGGE results provided by existing national/ international operating models were independent from the user-end, the case study enlightened ways of establishing an iteratively self-improving UIFS involving user-orientation throughout the forecast process.
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    Periodical cited type(3)

    1. Ziyan Zheng, Zhongwei Yan, Jing Chen, et al. Evolving Threshold of Flood-Leading Precipitation in a User-Oriented Forecast System Based on the TIGGE Dataset. Frontiers in Earth Science, 2021, 9 DOI:10.3389/feart.2021.703024
    2. Amanda J. Schroeder, Jonathan J. Gourley, Jill Hardy, et al. The development of a flash flood severity index. Journal of Hydrology, 2016, 541: 523. DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.04.005
    3. Shuang Liu, Jingwen Xu, Junfang Zhao, et al. An innovative method for dynamic update of initial water table in XXT model based on neural network technique. Applied Soft Computing, 2013, 13(10): 4185. DOI:10.1016/j.asoc.2013.06.024

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