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Abstract
A new seasonal prediction model for annual tropical storm numbers (ATSNs) over the western North
Pacific was developed using the preceding January-February (JF) and April-May (AM) grid-point data at
a resolution of 2.5°× 2.5°. The JF and AM mean precipitation and the AM mean 500-hPa geopotential
height in the Northern Hemisphere, together with the JF mean 500-hPa geopotential height in the Southern
Hemisphere, were employed to compose the ATSN forecast model via the stepwise multiple linear regression
technique. All JF and AM mean data were confined to the Eastern Hemisphere. We established two empirical
prediction models for ATSN using the ERA40 reanalysis and NCEP reanalysis datasets, respectively, together
with the observed precipitation. The performance of the models was verified by cross-validation. Anomaly
correlation coefficients (ACC) at 0.78 and 0.74 were obtained via comparison of the retrospective predictions
of the two models and the observed ATSNs from 1979 to 2002. The multi-year mean absolute prediction
errors were 3.0 and 3.2 for the two models respectively, or roughly 10% of the average ATSN. In practice, the
final prediction was made by averaging the ATSN predictions of the two models. This resulted in a higher
score, with ACC being further increased to 0.88, and the mean absolute error reduced to 1.92, or 6.13% of
the average ATSN.
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Citation
WANG Huijun. 2011: A New Prediction Model for Tropical Storm Frequency over the Western North Pacific Using Observed Winter-Spring Precipitation and Geopotential Height at 500 hPa. Journal of Meteorological Research, 25(3): 262-271. DOI: 10.1007/s13351-011-0302-6
WANG Huijun. 2011: A New Prediction Model for Tropical Storm Frequency over the Western North Pacific Using Observed Winter-Spring Precipitation and Geopotential Height at 500 hPa. Journal of Meteorological Research, 25(3): 262-271. DOI: 10.1007/s13351-011-0302-6
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WANG Huijun. 2011: A New Prediction Model for Tropical Storm Frequency over the Western North Pacific Using Observed Winter-Spring Precipitation and Geopotential Height at 500 hPa. Journal of Meteorological Research, 25(3): 262-271. DOI: 10.1007/s13351-011-0302-6
WANG Huijun. 2011: A New Prediction Model for Tropical Storm Frequency over the Western North Pacific Using Observed Winter-Spring Precipitation and Geopotential Height at 500 hPa. Journal of Meteorological Research, 25(3): 262-271. DOI: 10.1007/s13351-011-0302-6
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