Nonlinearity and Finite-Time Instability in a T21L3 Quasigeostrophic Model

In this paper, a nonlinear optimization method is used to explore the finite-time instability of the at- mospheric circulation with a three-level quasigeostrophic model under the framework of the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP). As a natural generalization of linear singular vector (SV), CNOP is defined as an initial perturbation that makes the cost function the maximum at a prescribed forecast time under certain physical constraint conditions. Special attentions are paid to the different structures and energy evolutions of the optimal perturbations. The results show that the most instable region of the global atmospheric circulation lies in the midla- titude Eurasian continent. More specially, SV and CNOP in the total energy norm with an optimization time of 2 days both present localness: they are mainly located in the midlatitude Asian continent and its east coast. With extension of the optimization time, SVs are more upstream and less localized in the zonal direction, and CNOPs differ essentially from SVs with broader zonal and meridional coverages; as a result, CNOPs acquire larger kinetic and available potential energy amplifications than SVs in the nonlinear model at the corresponding optimization time. For the climatological wintertime flow, it is seen that the baroclinic terms remain small over the entire time evolution, and the energy production comes essentially from the eddy kinetic energy, which is induced by the horizontal shear of the basic flow. In addition, the effects of SVs and CNOPs on the Eurasian atmospheric circulation are explored. The results show that the weather systems over the Eurasian continent in the perturbed fields by CNOPs are stronger than those by SVs at the optimization time. This reveals that the CNOP method is better in evaluating the instability of the atmospheric circulation while the SV method underestimates the possibility of extreme weather events.