Simulation of the Effects of the Preceding SST Anomalies over the Tropical Eastern Pacific on Precipitation to the South of the Yangtze River in June

Numerical experiments are performed to simulate the response of the atmospheric circulation and precipitation over East China in June to the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the tropical eastern Pacific (TEP) from preceding September to June by using an atmospheric general circulation model(AGCM). We constructed composite positive/negative SST anomalies (P-SSTAs/N-SSTAs) based on the observational SST anomalies over the TEP from September 1997 to June 1998. The results show that: (1)the response of the precipitation in the Yangtze River basin and its southern area (YRBS) to El Nieno with different durations varies with the maximum amplitude of the precipitation anomalies appearing when the imposed duration is from November to next June, and the minimum appearing when the SST anomalies is only imposed in June. The anomalies of the precipitation are reduced when the duration of the forcing SST anomalies over the TEP is shortened and the positive SST anomalies in the preceding autumn tend to cause significantly more rainfall in the YRBS. This is in agreement with previous diagnostic analysis results. (2) The simulated precipitation anomalies over the YRBS are always obviously positive under strong or weak positive SST anomalies over the TEP. The intensity of the precipitation anomalies increases with increasing intensity of the SST anomalies in the experiments. The simulation results are consistent with the observations during the warm SST events, suggesting reasonable modeling results. (3) When negative SST anomalies in the TEP are put into the model, the results are different from those of the diagnostic analysis of La Niena events. Negative precipitation anomalies in YRBS could be reproduced only when the negative SST anomalies are strong enough.