Model Projections of Precipitation Minus Evaporation in China

Changes in precipitation minus evaporation (P–E) are analyzed to investigate the possible impacts of climate change on water resource conditions in China. Simulations of SRES A1B and 20C3M scenarios from the WCRP CMIP3 GCMs are employed in the study. Time slice analysis shows that there would be more annual mean P–E across China in 2040–2055 and 2080–2099, compared to 1980–1999, with the largest percentage change over Northwest China and the Bohai Rim area. Precipitation and evaporation would also increase over entire China during these two periods. Annual mean P–E, precipitation, and evaporation averaged over the whole China and its eight sub-areas all yield generally upward trends during the 21st century. This indicates that on annual mean scale, the global warming related precipitation dominates the hydroclimate conditions in China. On seasonal mean scale, although precipitation is projected to increase over China, P–E exhibits both decreasing and increasing trends over certain regions of China. This suggests that the variation of global warming related evaporation dominates hydroclimate conditions over some parts of China, especially in northern China. Therefore, in hydroclimate condition projections, considering both evaporation and precipitation changes should be more reasonable than considering only precipitation.