A Lightning Activity Forecast Scheme Developed for Summer Thunderstorms in South China

+ Author Affiliations + Find other works by these authors
  • Funds:

    Supported by the National Science & Technology Pillar Program of Ministry of Finance under Grant No. 2008BAC36B04, the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 40875003, and the Basic Scientific Research and Operation Fund of Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences under Grant No. 2008Y003

PDF

  • Based on the relationship between lightning flash density and radar echoes and a statistical analysis using satellite and radar observations, a scheme was introduced into the mesoscale model GRAPES (Global and Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System) to forecast the cloud to ground (CG) flash activities. Because the relationship is a necessary but not sufficient condition for lightning, an additional constraint condition related to temperature of cloud top is added into the scheme to determine whether the lightning activity really occurs. Only if the lightning activity meets the criterion to occur, the CG flash density in a grid is considered to be valid. This was proved to be necessary for reducing the false prediction. Two cases that occurred on the edge of the subtropical high in coastal regions of South China were simulated to examine the efficiency of the scheme. The results showed that the scheme was capable of forecasting lightning activities in South China. The simulated lightning areas agreed with the CG flash observations, and the CG flash density forecast by the model was also consistent with observational results in magnitude. In consideration of the forecast aging of the explicit cloud microphysical scheme in GRAPES, lightning activities can now be forecast accurately within 6 h.
  • 加载中
  • 加载中
通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
  • 1. 

    沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

  1. 本站搜索
  2. 百度学术搜索
  3. 万方数据库搜索
  4. CNKI搜索

A Lightning Activity Forecast Scheme Developed for Summer Thunderstorms in South China

  • 1. Laboratory of Lightning Physics and Protection Engineering,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081 Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049;
    Laboratory of Lightning Physics and Protection Engineering,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081 State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081;
    Laboratory of Lightning Physics and Protection Engineering,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081
Funds: Supported by the National Science & Technology Pillar Program of Ministry of Finance under Grant No. 2008BAC36B04, the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 40875003, and the Basic Scientific Research and Operation Fund of Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences under Grant No. 2008Y003

Abstract: Based on the relationship between lightning flash density and radar echoes and a statistical analysis using satellite and radar observations, a scheme was introduced into the mesoscale model GRAPES (Global and Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System) to forecast the cloud to ground (CG) flash activities. Because the relationship is a necessary but not sufficient condition for lightning, an additional constraint condition related to temperature of cloud top is added into the scheme to determine whether the lightning activity really occurs. Only if the lightning activity meets the criterion to occur, the CG flash density in a grid is considered to be valid. This was proved to be necessary for reducing the false prediction. Two cases that occurred on the edge of the subtropical high in coastal regions of South China were simulated to examine the efficiency of the scheme. The results showed that the scheme was capable of forecasting lightning activities in South China. The simulated lightning areas agreed with the CG flash observations, and the CG flash density forecast by the model was also consistent with observational results in magnitude. In consideration of the forecast aging of the explicit cloud microphysical scheme in GRAPES, lightning activities can now be forecast accurately within 6 h.

Catalog

    /

    DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint
    Return
    Return