Distribution Characteristics of the Intensity and Extreme Intensity of Tropical Cyclones Influencing China

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  • Funds:

    Supported by the National (Key) Basic Research and Development (973) Program of China (2013CB430106) and Key Project of National Social Science Foundation of China (11zd167).

  • doi: 10.1007/s13351-014-3050-6

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  • To address the deficiency of climatological research on tropical cyclones (TCs) influencing China, we analyze the distributions of TCs with different intensities in the region, based on the best-track TC data for 1949-2011 provided by the Shanghai Typhoon Institute. We also present the distributions of 50- and 100-yr return-period TCs with different intensities using the Gumbel probability distribution. The results show that TCs with different intensities exert distinctive effects on various regions of China and its surrounding waters. The extreme intensity distributions of TCs over these different regions also differ. Super and severe typhoons mainly influence Taiwan Island and coastal areas of Fujian and Zhejiang provinces, while typhoons and TCs with lower intensities influence South China most frequently. The probable maximum TC intensity (PMTI) with 50- and 100-yr return periods influencing Taiwan Island is below 890 hPa; the PMTI with a50-yr return period influencing the coastal areas of Fujian and Zhejiang provinces is less than 910 hPa, and that with a 100-yr return period is less than 900 hPa; the PMTI with a 50-yr return period influencing the coastal areas of Hainan, Guangdong, and the northern part of the South China Sea is lower than 930 hPa, and that with a 100-yr return period is less than 920 hPa. The results provide a useful reference for the estimation of extreme TC intensities over different regions of China.
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    沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

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Distribution Characteristics of the Intensity and Extreme Intensity of Tropical Cyclones Influencing China

  • 1. National Meteorological Center,Beijing 100081;
    National Meteorological Center,Beijing 100081;
    Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences,Peking University,Beijing 100871
Funds: Supported by the National (Key) Basic Research and Development (973) Program of China (2013CB430106) and Key Project of National Social Science Foundation of China (11zd167).

Abstract: To address the deficiency of climatological research on tropical cyclones (TCs) influencing China, we analyze the distributions of TCs with different intensities in the region, based on the best-track TC data for 1949-2011 provided by the Shanghai Typhoon Institute. We also present the distributions of 50- and 100-yr return-period TCs with different intensities using the Gumbel probability distribution. The results show that TCs with different intensities exert distinctive effects on various regions of China and its surrounding waters. The extreme intensity distributions of TCs over these different regions also differ. Super and severe typhoons mainly influence Taiwan Island and coastal areas of Fujian and Zhejiang provinces, while typhoons and TCs with lower intensities influence South China most frequently. The probable maximum TC intensity (PMTI) with 50- and 100-yr return periods influencing Taiwan Island is below 890 hPa; the PMTI with a50-yr return period influencing the coastal areas of Fujian and Zhejiang provinces is less than 910 hPa, and that with a 100-yr return period is less than 900 hPa; the PMTI with a 50-yr return period influencing the coastal areas of Hainan, Guangdong, and the northern part of the South China Sea is lower than 930 hPa, and that with a 100-yr return period is less than 920 hPa. The results provide a useful reference for the estimation of extreme TC intensities over different regions of China.

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